對中國來說,獲得英偉達先進晶片為何重要
How Much Could China Gain From Access to Powerful Nvidia Chips?

President Trump’s announcement that the American chip maker Nvidia would be able to sell semiconductors to China appeared to roll back years of policies aimed at blocking the country’s access to advanced technologies.
川普總統宣布,美國晶片製造商英偉達獲准向中國出售半導體。這一決定似乎逆轉了數年來旨在阻止中國獲取先進技術的相關政策。
At stake, officials in Washington have argued, is China’s ability to use American technology to gain military and economic advantages, particularly through artificial intelligence. By cutting China off, lawmakers wanted to preserve the lead the United States has achieved in A.I. and slow China’s efforts to catch up.
華盛頓官員稱,此舉關乎中國能否利用美國技術獲取軍事和經濟優勢,尤其是在人工智慧領域。議員們希望通過切斷中國獲取技術的管道,保住美國在人工智慧領域的領先地位,並延緩中國的追趕步伐。
On the other side, Nvidia’s chief executive, Jensen Huang, spent months trying to persuade Mr. Trump to reverse course. He argued that limiting China’s access to American technology has only spurred Chinese companies to improve faster.
Mr. Trump’s decision on Monday to allow Nvidia to sell its second-most-powerful chip, known as the H200, to Chinese commercial customers vetted by the U.S. Commerce Department strikes “a thoughtful balance that is great for America,” an Nvidia spokesman said.
川普週一決定允許英偉達向經美國商務部審核的中國商業客戶出售其第二先進的H200晶片。英偉達發言人表示,這一決定實現了「兼顧各方的平衡,對美國大有裨益」。
廣告
The impact of Mr. Trump’s decision is unclear. But the Chinese government has already spent billions in effort to become an A.I. superpower. The country’s chip makers are racing to make advanced chips on their own, and Chinese A.I. companies have become more efficient at using the chips they have access to.
這一決定的影響尚不明朗。但中國政府已投入數十億美元,力求成為人工智慧超級大國。中國晶片製造商正全力自主研發先進晶片,而中國人工智慧企業也在更高效地利用現有可獲取的晶片資源。
“The push for domestic production will continue,” said Jiang Tianjiao, an associate professor at Fudan University. “Beijing’s strategy is clear.”
「國產晶片研發的推進不會停止,」復旦大學副教授江天驕表示。「中國的戰略方向十分明確。」
Investor bets that a Chinese company could soon compete with Nvidia have driven huge gains in the country’s tech stocks this year. Shares of the partly state-backed chip designer Cambricon have risen more than 120 percent, compared with a year ago. Last week, Moore Threads, a start-up chip maker founded by a former Nvidia executive, went public in one of the Shanghai Star Market’s largest offerings of the year.
投資者押注中國企業很快就有能力與英偉達競爭,這推動中國科技股今年大幅上漲。國有控股晶片設計公司寒武紀的股價較去年上漲逾120%。上週,由前英偉達高管創辦的初創晶片企業摩爾線程在上海科創板上市,成為該板塊今年規模最大的IPO之一。
But even Huawei, the telecommunications giant leading China’s race to compete with Nvidia, remains at least two years behind the Silicon Valley company, experts said.
但專家表示,即便是引領中國與英偉達競爭的科技巨頭華為,仍落後這家矽谷公司至少兩年時間。
Chinese chips still lag behind Nvidia’s in performance, and the companies face major constraints on their output. Chinese chips can produce, at most, 2 percent as much computing power as foreign rivals, said Tim Fist, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a think tank.
中國晶片的性能仍不及英偉達,且企業面臨巨大的產能制約。智庫新美國安全中心高級客座研究員蒂姆·菲斯特稱,中國晶片的算力最多僅為國外同類產品的2%。
Computing power is crucial in A.I. development. Advanced A.I. systems are powered by hundreds of thousands of chips known as GPUs, which companies pack into buildings known as data centers to create giant supercomputers that gobble electricity. OpenAI, the A.I. start-up that created ChatGPT, is planning to build five such facilities in the United States that would together consume more electricity than the three million households in Massachusetts.
算力是人工智慧發展的關鍵。先進的人工智慧系統由數十萬塊圖形處理器提供動力,企業將這些晶片集中部署在數據中心,構建成耗電量巨大的超級計算機。ChatGPT的開發方、人工智慧初創企業OpenAI計劃在美國建造五座這樣的設施,其總耗電量將超過麻薩諸塞州300萬戶家庭的用電量總和。
廣告
Chinese demand for cutting edge chips is also high. The biggest tech companies, including Alibaba, Tencent and ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, have poured money into A.I. efforts and infrastructure like data centers.
中國對尖端晶片的需求同樣十分旺盛。阿里巴巴、騰訊以及TikTok母公司字節跳動等頭部科技企業已向人工智慧相關項目及數據中心等基礎設施投入巨額資金。
For Chinese companies, “gaining access to higher-end chips like the H200 does indeed come at a critical moment,” said Frank Kung, an analyst at TrendForce, a market research firm in Taipei, Taiwan.
「對於中國企業而言,能獲得H200這類高端晶片無疑恰逢關鍵節點,」台灣市場研究機構集邦科技分析師龔明德表示。
Some officials who worked for former President Joseph R. Biden Jr. have warned that access to the Nvidia chips could help China’s A.I. companies buy time while the country’s chip makers improve the supply and performance of their own offerings.
曾在前總統拜登政府任職的一些官員警告稱,讓中國企業獲得英偉達晶片可能會為中國AI公司爭取時間,與此同時,中國本土晶片製造商有機會提升產品供應量與性能。
Mr. Trump’s decision to allow Nvidia to sell advanced chips in China has also renewed a debate about how much future advancements in A.I. technology will depend on vast stockpiles of powerful chips.
川普允許英偉達對華出口先進晶片的決定也重新引發了關於未來人工智慧技術發展在多大程度上依賴於高性能晶片儲備的討論。
Washington’s constraints have pushed Chinese companies to be more efficient. This year, the Chinese start-up DeepSeek rocked the tech industry with its claim that it had created powerful A.I. systems that required fewer chips and were significantly cheaper to build than those of better-funded American rivals.
華盛頓的限制措施迫使中國企業提高效率。今年,中國初創企業深度求索宣稱其研發的強大人工智慧系統所需晶片更少、建造成本遠低於資金更雄厚的美國競爭對手,這一消息震撼了科技行業。
The less powerful China-made chips require more electricity. But industrial electricity costs in China are far lower than in the United States, said Lian Jye Su, a chief analyst at Omdia, a tech research firm. The abundant cheap power has helped companies create sophisticated A.I. systems despite less powerful chips, Mr. Su said.
中國國產晶片性能較弱,能耗更高。但科技研究機構Omdia首席分析師蘇連傑(音)表示,中國的工業電價遠低於美國。他指出,充足的廉價電力資源幫助中國企業在晶片性能不足的情況下,仍能構建複雜的人工智慧系統。
廣告
The Chinese government has pushed companies there to buy domestic chips and warned Nvidia’s chips may carry risks. In July, China’s internet regulator said that it had summoned Nvidia to explain security risks associated with one of its chips developed for sale in China, saying the chips could be shut down remotely or used to track a user’s location.
中國政府一直推動國內企業採購國產晶片,並警告英偉達晶片可能存在安全風險。今年7月,中國互聯網監管機構表示已約談英偉達,要求其就一款專為中國市場研發的晶片相關安全風險作出說明,指出該晶片可能存在遠程關停或定位用戶位置的風險。
Many Chinese tech companies are already using a mix of domestic and foreign chips, said Paul Triolo, a partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. “Just because some Chinese companies will choose to purchase some number of H200 does not mean domestic development of advanced A.I. hardware will stop,” he added.
DGA-奧爾布賴特石橋集團合伙人保羅·特里奧洛表示,許多中國科技企業已在混合使用國產和外國晶片。「部分中國企業選擇採購一定數量的H200晶片,並不意味著先進人工智慧硬件的國產研發會停止,」他還說。
Mr. Trump’s willingness to widen China’s access to advanced American chips has drawn condemnation from members of Congress and former Biden administration officials.
川普願意擴大中國獲取美國先進晶片的管道,這遭到了美國國會議員和前拜登政府官員的譴責。
This summer, Mr. Trump proposed the idea of the government taking a cut of A.I. chip sales to China. On Monday, he reiterated that, writing that 25 percent “will be paid to the United States of America.”
今年夏天,川普提出政府要從人工智慧晶片對華銷售收入中抽成的想法。週一,他重申了這一主張,寫道,25%的銷售收入「將付給美國政府」。
Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to export controls on chips has led to some paradoxical outcomes. Hours before he said the Commerce Department was finalizing the details to allow sales of the H200 in China, the Department of Justice announced it had detained two people for selling those chips to the country.
川普對晶片出口管制採取的交易型策略引發了一些矛盾結果。就在他宣布美國商務部正在敲定H200晶片對華銷售細節的數小時前,美國司法部宣布逮捕了兩名向中國出售該型號晶片的人員。