Robots made by Chinese start-ups have danced on television, staged boxing matches and run marathons. When one company debuted its most recent robot last month, people online in China thought it looked so much like a human that workers cut the robot’s leg open onstage to reveal its metal pistons.

中國初創企業研發的機器人已登上電視跳舞、登台打拳擊，還跑馬拉松。某公司上月推出最新機器人時，中國網友認為外觀太像真人，現場工作人員只得當眾剖開機器人腿部，展示其內部金屬活塞結構。

Despite the public fascination, concerns are growing that China’s robotics industry is moving too fast. The robots can mimic human movement and even complete basic tasks. But they are not skilled enough to handle many tasks now done by people. And with so many companies rushing into the industry, Beijing is warning of a bubble.

儘管這類機器人引發了公眾的廣泛關注，外界對中國機器人產業發展過快的擔憂也在不斷加劇。目前這些機器人雖能模仿人類動作，甚至完成一些基礎任務，卻尚未熟練掌握人類當下承擔的諸多工作技能。面對大批企業爭相湧入的現狀，中國政府已發出行業泡沫預警。

Over 150 manufacturers are vying for a piece of the market, the Chinese government said last month, warning that the industry was at risk for a crowd of “highly repetitive products.”

北京上月指出，國內已有超過150家製造商競逐機器人市場，並警示稱，該行業正面臨「產品同質化嚴重」的風險。

“China has an attack-first approach when it comes to the adoption of new technology,” said Lian Jye Su, a chief analyst at Omdia, a tech research firm. “But this generally leads to a large number of vendors fighting for small chunks of market.”

「在新技術應用方面，中國向來採取先發制人的策略，」科技研究機構Omdia首席分析師蘇連傑表示。「但這種模式通常會導致大量廠商瓜分有限的市場份額。」

As it did with electric vehicles, China has gained an early global lead in making robots. China is using more robots in factories than the rest of the world combined, moving farther ahead of Japan, the United States, South Korea and Germany. Robots have transformed Chinese factory lines, doing things like welding car parts and lifting boxes onto conveyor belts.

It’s not unusual to run into a robot in Beijing. Robotic machines deliver room service in hotels and buff the floors in airports. Four-legged robots help deliver packages on university campuses. Robots cooked and served food in canteens during the 2022 Winter Olympics.

在北京，偶遇機器人早已不是新鮮事：酒店裡，機器人負責送客房服務；機場裡有機器人承擔拖地工作；大學校園裡，四足機器人幫忙配送包裹；2022年冬奧會期間，食堂裡有機器人負責烹飪和上菜。

But China is also working on the next frontier of robotics: robots that not only look but think and act like people. Public and private investors spent over $5 billion this year on start-ups making humanoid robots — the same amount spent in the last five years combined.

與此同時，中國正致力於攻克機器人領域的下一個前沿課題——研發不僅外形酷似人類，更能像人類一樣思考、行動的機器人。今年以來，公共與私人投資者已向人形機器人初創企業投入超50億美元，這一數額相當於過去五年的投資總和。

Chinese robot makers have significant advantages. They are able to draw on the world’s strongest manufacturing sector and the backing of multiple levels of government. They are getting better at making parts like the motors and specialized screws in robot joints.

中國機器人製造商具備諸多顯著優勢，他們能依託全球最完備的製造業體系，再加上各級政府的支持，企業在電機、機器人關節專用螺絲等零部件製造等技術方面正持續精進。

What Chinese robot start-ups have not been able to do is make humanoid robots that could transform the economy.

然而，中國機器人初創企業至今未能實現的目標是打造出足以推動經濟變革的人形機器人。

Experts say the humanoid robots that have been released so far struggle with unpredictable situations. They can be programmed to follow patterns, but they have a hard time reacting to events as they happen.

專家表示，目前已推出的人形機器人難以應對各類突髮狀況。它們可以按照預設程序完成重複性動作，卻很難對實時發生的事件做出靈活反應。

Chinese companies are realizing that making robots is not enough, said P.K. Tseng, a research manager at TrendForce, a market research firm in Taipei, Taiwan. “Without use cases, even if they can ship the products, they don’t know where to sell them,” he said.

「中國企業逐漸意識到，光造出機器人還遠遠不夠，」台灣市場研究機構集邦科技研究經理曾伯楷指出。「如果沒有具體的應用場景，就算產品能生產出來，企業也不知道該賣給誰。」

Company founders and investors believe that artificial intelligence will be the answer and that humanoid robots could be how A.I. becomes a physical force in the world.

企業創始人和投資者堅信，人工智慧將是破局的關鍵，而人形機器人有望成為人工智慧在現實世界中發揮實際作用的載體。

In Silicon Valley, tech executives often talk about achieving what they call artificial general intelligence. There is no settled definition, but for many it is the idea that A.I. could match the powers of the human mind.

In China, robotics companies claim they will make A.G.I. a reality.

在中國，機器人企業紛紛宣稱將率先讓通用人工智慧成為現實。

“For people in China, A.G.I. should be something that benefits people in their everyday life,” said Sunny Cheung, a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, which studies Chinese government influence. “Robotics is a testament of applied A.I. in real life.”

「對於中國人而言，通用人工智慧理應是一種能切實惠及人們日常生活的技術，」研究中國政府影響力的機構詹姆斯敦基金會研究員桑尼·張（音）表示，「機器人技術正是人工智慧在現實生活中落地應用的絕佳例證。」

But there is a big gap between this vision and the current abilities of robots. Many Chinese robotics start-ups are working on software they hope will transform robot behavior the way large language models have transformed A.I.

但這一願景與當前機器人能力存在巨大鴻溝。許多中國機器人初創企業正著力研發相關軟體，希望能像大型語言模型顛覆人工智慧領域那樣，徹底改變機器人的行為模式。

One way that robots can learn to act more like people is by repetitively doing basic tasks. For example, a limited number of robots made by UBTech Robotics, which is based in Shenzhen like dozens of other start-ups, have been lifting boxes over and over again at electric vehicle factories.

機器人要學會更貼近人類的行為方式，一種途徑是通過反覆執行基礎任務積累經驗。例如，與眾多同行一樣紮根深圳的優必選科技已在部分電動汽車工厂部署少量機器人，讓它們反覆練習搬箱子的動作。

Another way to train robots is by simulation, in which they watch a lot of videos of the thing they will do. Many of China’s leading robotics start-ups use software and chips made by the Silicon Valley company Nvidia to run their robots’ simulation training, Mr. Cheung said.

另一種訓練方式是模擬教學，即讓機器人觀看大量相關任務的影片。桑尼·張稱，中國多家頭部機器人初創企業均採用美國矽谷企業英偉達研發的軟體和晶片，開展機器人的模擬訓練工作。

While no one is certain how useful humanoid robots will turn out to be, China has already put two million manufacturing robots to use. Factories in China installed nearly 300,000 new robots last year, while American factories installed 34,000.

Chinese factories have also gotten better at making robots, a major advantage over foreign firms that struggle to manufacture them in large numbers.

中國工廠在機器人生產製造方面的能力也日益提升，使其相較於難以實現大規模生產的外國企業具備顯著優勢。

The start-up Unitree Robotics has announced plans to do an initial public offering, which could provide the capital it needs to help it become China’s leading humanoid robotics maker. Its latest basic humanoid robots are priced at about $6,000 in China, a fraction of the price of robots made by Boston Dynamics, long the leading American player in the industry. Boston Dynamics was acquired by the South Korean giant Hyundai Motor in 2020.

初創企業宇樹科技已宣布計劃啟動首次公開募股，此次上市有望為其募集足夠資金，助力其成為中國首屈一指的人形機器人製造商。該公司最新推出的基礎款人形機器人，在中國市場的售價約為4.2萬元，僅為長期領跑美國機器人行業的波士頓動力公司同類產品售價的一個零頭。波士頓動力於2020年被韓國巨頭現代汽車收購。

Major A.I. research labs, universities and start-ups in the United States have bought Unitree robots in recent months to test the robots’ abilities and interactions with their software.

近幾個月來，美國多家頂尖人工智慧研究實驗室、高校以及初創企業紛紛採購宇樹科技的機器人，用於測試其性能以及與自研軟體的適配性。

Chinese robot makers can offer lower prices in part because they are getting a lot of funding from municipal governments and state-backed hedge funds. The Beijing government has started a $14 billion fund to invest in A.I. and robotics. Shanghai set up an embodied A.I. fund with an initial investment of about $77 million.

中國機器人製造商之所以能給出更低的售價，部分原因在於它們能獲得大量來自地方政府和國有對沖基金的資金支持。北京市政府已設立規模達140億美元的基金，專門用於人工智能和機器人領域的投資；上海市也成立了一支具身智能專項基金，初始投資額約為7700萬美元。

In Hangzhou, a tech hot spot, Unitree and a rival, Deep Robotics, are part of a group of A.I. and robotics start-ups that the Chinese media has crowned the “six dragons.” The A.I. start-up DeepSeek is another.

This month, Deep Robotics said it had raised $70 million in its latest funding round.

本月，雲深處科技宣布在最新一輪融資中募集到7000萬美元資金。

The humanoid robot maker Robotera said in November that it had raised more than $140 million from investors, including the venture capital arm of Geely, an electric carmaker, and the Beijing city government’s dedicated investment funds for robotics and artificial intelligence.

人形機器人製造商星動紀元則於11月表示，已從投資者處籌集超1.4億美元資金，投資方包括電動汽車製造商吉利集團的風險投資部門，以及北京市政府專門設立的機器人與人工智慧投資基金。

In late November, the Chinese central government set up a committee to establish industry standards. Members included founders, university research labs, municipal government hedge funds and Chinese state officials working on cryptography.

11月下旬，中國中央政府成立專項委員會，負責制定機器人行業標準。委員會成員涵蓋企業創始人、高校研究實驗室代表、地方政府對沖基金負責人，以及從事密碼學研究的中國政府官員。