Despite being swatted about like a tetherball by ever-shifting trade wars, shortages of critical minerals and tense standoffs between the United States and China, the global economy has turned out to be more resilient than predicted.

儘管在變幻莫測的貿易戰、關鍵礦產短缺以及中美之間緊張對峙之下，全球經濟像梨球一樣不斷被打來打去，但表現出的韌性卻超出了預期。

But don’t think that it’s time to take a breath. The whirligig shows no sign of stopping.

不過，現在還不是鬆口氣的時候。經濟漩渦並沒有停下來的跡象。

“We are living through a singularly turbulent time,” said Daron Acemoglu, an economist at M.I.T. who won the Nobel in economic science last year.

「我們正經歷一個極其動盪的時代，」麻省理工學院經濟學家、去年獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎的達龍·阿西莫格魯說。

Transformational changes continue to rattle the global economy, including the revolution in artificial intelligence, rapidly aging populations, climate change, and a worldwide turn against liberal democracy and a rules-based international order.

變革性的變化仍在持續撼動全球經濟，包括人工智慧革命、人口迅速老齡化、氣候變化，以及全球範圍內對自由民主和基於規則的國際秩序的普遍背離。

All of which are poised to remake jobs, politics and lives.

所有這些勢必重塑就業、政治和生活。

The transition has been complicated by chaotic economic policymaking around the world this year.

今年的全球經濟政策制定一片混亂，使得這一轉型過程更加複雜。

In the United States, contradictory pronouncements are regularly issued from the Oval Office, as tariffs are enacted and retracted without warning. Last month, for instance, President Trump lifted tariffs on beef, tomatoes, bananas, coffee and other groceries, while last week, he threatened to raise them on rice from India and China.

Delayed price increases from tariffs are still working their way through the American economy like a mouse being digested by a snake.

就像蛇在消化老鼠一樣，關稅帶來的延遲性價格上漲緩慢地在美國經濟中傳導。

At the same time, the future of a large chunk of the president’s tariff policies remains unclear until the Supreme Court rules on their constitutionality.

與此同時，總統的大規模關稅政策未來走向仍不明朗，要等到最高法院就其合憲性作出裁決。

On the spending side, Mr. Trump has vowed to use a $250 billion pot of money generated by tariffs to pay out trillions of dollars to farmers, taxpayers and creditors. Public debt has shot up to record levels, reaching 125 percent of the country’s total output.

在支出方面，川普承諾用關稅產生的2500億美元資金向農民、納稅人和債權人支付數萬億美元。公共債務已飆升至創紀錄水平，達到全國總產出的125%。

And the dizzying rise in the stock market, pumped by artificial intelligence companies, is fueling both fortunes and fears of a future crash.

人工智慧公司推動的股市狂飆既造就了巨額財富，也引發了對未來崩盤的恐懼。

In Europe, most countries continue to be plagued by slower growth more than other advanced economies. For several years now, the European Union’s share of the global economy has been shrinking amid sharper competition from the United States and China.

在歐洲，大多數國家仍深陷增長乏力的困境，增速仍然低於其他發達經濟體。多年來，歐盟在全球經濟中的份額一直在萎縮，面臨來自美國和中國的更激烈競爭。

Investment in artificial intelligence has also fallen far behind.

在人工智慧領域的投資也遠遠落後。

“Europe has a huge innovation problem in the tech sector,” said Mr. Acemoglu, who won his Nobel for research on how institutions shape national prosperity.

「歐洲在科技領域的創新存在巨大問題，」因研究制度如何塑造國家繁榮獲諾貝爾獎的阿西莫格魯說。

With 27 members that have varying priorities and domestic pressures, the European Union has enormous difficulty carrying out critical policy recommendations like strengthening its single market for trade and capital, streamlining regulations and signing on to new trade pacts. This week, for example, the bloc delayed a vote on whether to approve a trade deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay that has been in the works for decades.

歐盟的27個成員國各有各的優先事項以及各不相同的國內壓力，很難落實關鍵政策建議，例如加強單一市場在貿易和資本方面的整合、精簡監管、簽署新的貿易協定。比如在本週，歐盟就推遲了一項已醞釀數十年的與阿根廷、巴西、巴拉圭和烏拉圭貿易協定的表決。

Producers and manufacturers are held back by high energy prices and face growing competition from cheap Chinese exports that before Mr. Trump’s tariffs would have been directed to the United States.

高能源價格拖累了生產商和製造商，同時他們還面臨來自中國廉價出口品日益激烈的競爭——這些商品原本在川普加徵關稅前會主要流向美國。

Security threats are pushing European governments to further strain budgets and dig deeper into debt as they devote substantially more resources to military spending.

安全威脅迫使歐洲各國政府進一步壓縮預算，增加債務，因為他們不得不將更多資源投入軍費開支。

The war in Ukraine grinds on, and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has shown little sign of curbing his aggressive stance. Mr. Trump continues to enfeeble America’s commitment to the Atlantic alliance. A recent Danish intelligence analysis warned that the United States “no longer rules out the use of military force, even against allies.”

烏克蘭戰爭仍在持續，俄羅斯總統普丁幾乎沒有表現出任何收斂其強硬姿態的跡象。川普繼續削弱美國對北大西洋聯盟的承諾。丹麥情報機構最近的一份分析警告稱，美國「不再排除對盟友使用武力」。

On the other side of the globe, China is still suffering from a collapse in its real estate market and a pullback in property, infrastructure and manufacturing investments.

China’s economic influence, though, is building. A record $1 trillion global trade surplus shows that Mr. Trump’s tariffs have done little to dampen the country’s trade domination or its reliance on exports to propel its economy. The International Monetary Fund recently revised the country’s annual growth forecast up to 5 percent.

“These imbalances are becoming unbearable,” President Emmanuel Macron of France said during a visit to China this month.

「這些失衡正變得令人難以忍受，」法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克宏本月訪華期間表示。

Europe is not the only destination for the growing flood of Chinese exports. Southeast Asia is among the regions that have seen the sharpest increases.

歐洲並非中國出口激增的唯一目的地。東南亞是中國出口增長最迅猛的地區之一。

Dani Rodrik, an economist at Harvard, said the West’s “response to China’s manufacturing onslaught has been misguided and ineffective.” Chinese innovation has produced significant climate and energy-related advancements, which benefit the entire globe, he said, adding that “instead of blanket condemnation of Chinese mercantilism, the West needs a more differentiated strategy.”

哈佛大學經濟學家丹尼·羅德里克認為，西方「對中國製造業攻勢的應對是失當的，也是無效的」。他說，中國創新在氣候和能源領域取得了重大進展，惠及全球，他還補充說，「西方不應一味譴責中國重商主義，而需要採取更有區分度的戰略。」

He suggested focusing on the next generation of technology rather than trying to ape what China had already done.

他建議應聚焦下一代技術，而不是試圖模仿中國已經做的事情。

In terms of artificial intelligence, China offers the United States significant competition. Mr. Acemoglu at M.I.T. said China had an advantage over the United States when it came to the number of well-trained engineers.

在人工智慧領域，中國對美國構成了重大威脅。麻省理工學院的阿西莫格魯表示，中國在高素質工程師的數量上擁有優勢。

The unseating of the longstanding trading order, with the United States clearly on top and leading the way, is also creating new uncertainties and costs for the world economy.

長期以來以美國居首、引領全球的貿易秩序被打破，也為世界經濟帶來了新的不確定性和成本。

“We’re certainly in this limbo where there’s no hegemon, and countries are feeling more entitled to go their own way,” said Maurice Obstfeld, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

「我們現在確實處於一種沒有霸權的狀態，各國愈發覺得自己有權走自己的路，」彼得森國際經濟研究所高級研究員莫裡斯·奧布斯特菲爾德說。

As ad hoc bilateral trade deals proliferate, businesses also have to worry more about the source of their materials and rising compliance costs with added demands for documentation. “It’s a much creakier trade system than the one we’ve been used to,” Mr. Obstfeld said.

隨著臨時雙邊貿易協定激增，企業還必須更加關注原材料來源以及因額外手續要求而增加的合規成本。「現在的貿易體系比我們習慣的那個要脆弱得多，運轉起來也更費力，」奧布斯特菲爾德說。

Diane Coyle, an economist at the University of Cambridge, noted how the Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath had revealed unforeseen vulnerabilities in the global supply chain. “I think we still don’t have a detailed insight into global and national production networks and where those bottlenecks are,” or where they will show up when a new crisis hits, she said.

劍橋大學經濟學家黛安·科伊爾指出，新冠疫情及其後果暴露了全球供應鏈中意想不到的脆弱性。「我們仍然缺乏對全球和國家生產網路的詳細洞察，不知道瓶頸在哪裡，」她說。「也不知道下一次危機來臨時，瓶頸會在哪裡出現。」

Political currents could bring further instability to the world economy.

政治浪潮可能給世界經濟帶來進一步的不穩定。

“A lot of people in a lot of countries feel that their lives are going backward,” Ms. Coyle said, and distrust in government is increasing.

「很多國家、很多人感覺自己的生活正在倒退，」科伊爾說，對政府的信任也在下降。

Elections in several nations next year could shift policy. Midterm congressional elections in the United States, which may serve as a referendum on Mr. Trump’s economic agenda, are likely to prompt the administration to pump up government spending — and the deficit — to spur the economy.

明年多個國家的大選或將引發政策轉向。美國中期國會選舉很可能成為對川普經濟議程的一次公投，政府可能因此加大支出、擴大赤字以刺激經濟。

Sweden’s general elections will show how some of Europe’s far-right populist parties are faring and test the electoral system’s susceptibility to foreign disinformation campaigns. In Latin America’s largest economy, Brazil, where Mr. Trump has used tariffs to try to influence domestic politics and judicial rulings, the president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face off against a far-right populist challenger.

瑞典大選將顯示歐洲極右翼民粹主義政黨表現如何，並考驗選舉系統對外國虛假信息運動的抵抗力。在拉美最大經濟體巴西——川普曾利用關稅試圖影響其國內政治和司法裁決——現任總統盧拉將面對極右翼民粹主義挑戰者。

A group of external advisers to the twin stewards of the global financial system, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, captured this sense of dislocation — and perhaps even dread — in a new analysis of the future of the world economy and the institutions’ roles in it.

在一份關於世界經濟未來及機構角色的新分析報告中，全球金融體系雙巨頭——世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織——的一個外部顧問團隊捕捉到了這種失序感——甚至可能是恐懼感。

They introduced the report with a quote based on the 1929 writings of the political philosopher Antonio Gramsci: “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters.”

他們在報告開頭引用了政治哲學家安東尼奧·葛蘭西在1929年寫下的文字：「舊世界正在死去，新世界掙扎著誕生；現在是怪獸的時代。」