To understand how China’s economy is now experiencing both the best and the worst of times, consider the port city of Ningbo, a two-hour drive south of Shanghai.

想要理解中国经济为何同时正经历最好的时代与最坏的时代，不妨来看上海以南车程两小时的港口城市宁波。

Ningbo’s vast port handles 150,000 ships a year and is the world’s largest by cargo tonnage. A seemingly endless armada of tankers and bulk carriers arrives to discharge imported oil and grain, while other vessels pick up tens of thousands of containers daily.

宁波港规模宏大，每年吞吐15万艘船舶，按货物吨位计算位居全球首位。数不尽的油轮与散货船络绎不绝地驶来，卸载进口原油和粮食；与此同时，每天又有其他船舶装载数万个集装箱离港。

Departing ships are packed with manufactured goods headed for global markets. Enormous car carriers, essentially floating parking lots with a dozen floors, transport China’s rapidly increasing car exports.

出港的船只满舱装载着销往全球市场的制成品，体型庞大的汽车运输船宛如拥有十数层甲板的海上移动停车场，承载着中国激增的汽车出口量。

Teeming with factories that make everything from fabric and apparel to household appliances and electric vehicles, Ningbo offers a full display of China’s industrial prowess. Its port and manufacturing facilities are the engine that helped power China’s record trade surplus last year.

从纺织面料、服装服饰到家用电器、电动汽车，宁波遍布各类工厂，完整展现了中国的工业实力。这里的港口与制造业基地正是去年中国创下贸易顺差纪录的引擎。

But a very different portrait of China’s economy can be seen several miles up the Yong River, where the Old Bund historic district stands at the site of Ningbo’s 19th-century port. There, housing prices have collapsed, as in many other parts of China. Construction has stalled, and the municipal government has cut spending. Declining home values have eaten into the net worth of the city’s middle class, leading to reduced consumer spending.

但驱车沿甬江上行数公里，来到依托宁波19世纪老港口遗址建成的老外滩历史文化街区，你会看到中国经济全然不同的另一面。和国内许多地区一样，这里的房价大幅暴跌，工程建设陷入停滞，市政府不得不压缩财政支出。房价下跌侵蚀了城市中产阶级的资产净值，进而导致居民消费意愿萎缩。

The restored Old Bund neighborhood — home to art galleries, restaurants and bars — was largely deserted on two evenings last month. Crooners in the bars sang to empty tables. The sightseers avoided venturing into any of the establishments.

修葺一新的老外滩聚集着美术馆、餐厅和酒吧，然而上个月的两个晚上，这里却门庭冷落。酒吧里的驻唱歌手对着空无一人的餐桌演唱，游客们也不愿踏入任何一家店铺消费。

“The main reason is that people just don’t have money,” said Sarah Jin, manager of a toilet store at a construction materials market on Ningbo’s outskirts.

“主要原因是现在人们都没钱了，”宁波郊区一家建材市场的卫浴店店主莎拉·金（音）说。

At the market, the sales drop-off has been bleak: The toilet store’s sales were down by a third, the plumbing supplies outlet had tumbled 70 percent and the door seller’s business had plunged 80 percent.

这家建材市场的销售下滑态势严峻：卫浴店生意下滑三分之一，水暖器材店跌幅达70%，卖门的商铺营业额更是暴跌80%。

Government data indicates that Ningbo’s troubles are worsening rapidly. Investments in new apartments, office buildings, factories and other fixed assets, once the cornerstone of China’s economy, unexpectedly fell 1.4 percent in 2024.

政府数据显示，宁波的经济困境正迅速加剧。曾是中国经济发展基石的新建住宅、写字楼、工厂等固定资产投资2024年意外下降1.4%。

Then last year, the bottom dropped out, according to data from the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Fixed-asset investment plummeted 21.4 percent last year.

宁波市统计局的数据显示，固定资产投资去年更是急转直下，同比跌幅高达21.4%。

In the West, national governments accelerate spending during economic downturns to cushion the shock. But in China, local governments do most of the spending, and they have long relied on land sales and other real-estate-related activities for revenue.

在西方国家，中央政府会在经济下行期加大财政支出，以缓冲经济冲击。但在中国，财政支出的主体是地方政府，而地方政府长期以来都依赖土地出让及其他与房地产相关的产业获取财政收入。

As the property sector fell into a tailspin, Ningbo officials cut expenditures. The city’s spending dropped 5.6 percent last year, according to the municipal statistics agency. In the boom years before the pandemic, municipal spending had risen 11 to 13 percent annually.

随着房地产行业陷入螺旋式下跌，宁波官方削减了开支。据宁波市统计局数据，去年全市财政支出同比下降5.6%；而在疫情前的经济繁荣期，市财政支出年均增幅可达11%至13%。

Tang Feifan, Ningbo’s mayor, acknowledged the city’s difficulties in a speech last week. Ningbo lacks “follow-through” in major industrial projects, and there is “continued pressure on the stable growth of foreign trade and foreign investment,” he said. “Consumption potential has yet to be fully unleashed.”

宁波市市长汤飞帆在上周的讲话中坦承了城市发展面临的困境。他表示，宁波在重大产业项目“持续不足”，“外资外贸稳定增长持续承压”，“消费潜能还需进一步激发”。

Only the city’s export factories are prospering.

如今，唯有当地的出口制造企业仍保持景气。

“The real estate market has been so weak that almost no one is buying houses anymore,” said Jennie Yang, who runs the plumbing supplies store. “My business now mainly relies on longtime factory clients to keep things going.”

“房地产市场太差了，几乎没人再买房子了，”水暖器材店店主珍妮·杨（音）说。“我的生意现在主要就靠那些工厂的老客户在维持。”

As local businesses struggle, China’s manufacturing prowess remains a bright spot. Ms. Jin’s toilet store was faring better than other construction materials shops, because of the popularity of high-tech toilets with electronic controls and bidet-like features — another example of a broader strengthening of China’s technical abilities.

依赖本地消费的商家举步维艰的同时，中国的制造业实力仍是一个亮点。金女士的卫浴店生意比其他建材铺稍好，得益于带电控系统、坐浴功能的高科技智能马桶十分畅销——这也是中国整体技术实力不断提升的又一例证。

When she entered the industry eight years ago, costlier, better-equipped toilets were imported. Now they come from Chinese factories.

八年前她入行时，品质更好、价格更高的马桶还依赖进口；如今，这些产品均由中国本土工厂生产。

“China doesn’t need to rely on imports for many things anymore — we can produce them ourselves and, most importantly, at a very low price,” she said.

“中国现在很多东西都不用靠进口了，我们自己就能造，更重要的是，成本还特别低，”她说。

But even the export sector has difficulties. Severe overcapacity and President Trump’s new tariffs have led to falling prices, crippling companies’ profit margins. While factories are humming, they are increasingly automated, reducing the need for workers.

但即便是出口领域也并非毫无挑战。严重的产能过剩叠加特朗普政府的新关税政策，导致产品价格下跌，严重挤压企业的利润空间。尽管工厂里机器不停运转，但生产的自动化程度越来越高，减少了用工需求。

China’s elite, previously a leading market for Italian sports cars and French couture, has curbed spending. Even one of Ningbo’s oldest and most famous industries is shrinking: the production of wildly expensive handmade men’s suits.

曾是意大利跑车、法国高级定制时装主要消费群体的中国高收入人群，如今也开始缩减开支。就连宁波历史最悠久、最负盛名的产业之一——价格高昂的手工定制男装生产——也在不断萎缩。

The most expensive suits, made of vicuña wool, sell for up to $100,000. But one of Ningbo’s best-known tailor shops, Yinyi Hongbang, mainly sells suits now for around $2,000, made from less expensive fabrics.

当地知名的裁缝老字号胤一红帮最贵的西装采用小羊驼毛面料，要价70多万元人民币，但如今它主打售价约1.5万元人民币、采用普通面料的西装。

“These days, orders are dropping across the country,” said Young Liu, manager of Yinyi’s main store in Ningbo.

“现在全国的订单都在跌，”胤一红帮宁波总店经理刘洋说。

Economic weakness has caused unhappiness among the city’s less affluent residents who have lost their savings or struggle to find full-time work. While China’s powerful security apparatus and censorship keep public displays of dissatisfaction under wraps, glimpses of resentment are readily found.

经济下行让宁波普通民众怨声载道，他们中有人积蓄耗尽，有人难以找到全职工作。尽管中国强大的安保体系和舆论管控压制着公开不满情绪，但怨愤迹象仍随处可见。

“Everyone is complaining about how hard it is to get money, how hard it is to survive,” said a middle-aged resident who gave his family name, Yang. “People are very angry with the government.”

“每个人都在抱怨，现在赚钱太难了，活着太难了，”一位仅透露自己姓杨的中年市民说。“大家就是对政府气很大。”