To understand how China’s economy is now experiencing both the best and the worst of times, consider the port city of Ningbo, a two-hour drive south of Shanghai.

想要理解中國經濟為何同時正經歷最好的時代與最壞的時代，不妨來看上海以南車程兩小時的港口城市寧波。

Ningbo’s vast port handles 150,000 ships a year and is the world’s largest by cargo tonnage. A seemingly endless armada of tankers and bulk carriers arrives to discharge imported oil and grain, while other vessels pick up tens of thousands of containers daily.

寧波港規模宏大，每年吞吐15萬艘船舶，按貨物噸位計算位居全球首位。數不盡的油輪與散貨船絡繹不絕地駛來，卸載進口原油和糧食；與此同時，每天又有其他船舶裝載數萬個集裝箱離港。

Departing ships are packed with manufactured goods headed for global markets. Enormous car carriers, essentially floating parking lots with a dozen floors, transport China’s rapidly increasing car exports.

出港的船隻滿艙裝載著銷往全球市場的製成品，體型龐大的汽車運輸船宛如擁有十數層甲板的海上移動停車場，承載著中國激增的汽車出口量。

Teeming with factories that make everything from fabric and apparel to household appliances and electric vehicles, Ningbo offers a full display of China’s industrial prowess. Its port and manufacturing facilities are the engine that helped power China’s record trade surplus last year.

從紡織面料、服裝服飾到家用電器、電動汽車，寧波遍布各類工廠，完整展現了中國的工業實力。這裡的港口與製造業基地正是去年中國創下貿易順差紀錄的引擎。

But a very different portrait of China’s economy can be seen several miles up the Yong River, where the Old Bund historic district stands at the site of Ningbo’s 19th-century port. There, housing prices have collapsed, as in many other parts of China. Construction has stalled, and the municipal government has cut spending. Declining home values have eaten into the net worth of the city’s middle class, leading to reduced consumer spending.

但驅車沿甬江上行數公里，來到依託寧波19世紀老港口遺址建成的老外灘歷史文化街區，你會看到中國經濟全然不同的另一面。和國內許多地區一樣，這裡的房價大幅暴跌，工程建設陷入停滯，市政府不得不壓縮財政支出。房價下跌侵蝕了城市中產階級的資產凈值，進而導致居民消費意願萎縮。

The restored Old Bund neighborhood — home to art galleries, restaurants and bars — was largely deserted on two evenings last month. Crooners in the bars sang to empty tables. The sightseers avoided venturing into any of the establishments.

修葺一新的老外灘聚集著美術館、餐廳和酒吧，然而上個月的兩個晚上，這裡卻門庭冷落。酒吧裡的駐唱歌手對著空無一人的餐桌演唱，遊客們也不願踏入任何一家店鋪消費。

“The main reason is that people just don’t have money,” said Sarah Jin, manager of a toilet store at a construction materials market on Ningbo’s outskirts.

「主要原因是現在人們都沒錢了，」寧波郊區一家建材市場的衛浴店店主莎拉·金（音）說。

At the market, the sales drop-off has been bleak: The toilet store’s sales were down by a third, the plumbing supplies outlet had tumbled 70 percent and the door seller’s business had plunged 80 percent.

這家建材市場的銷售下滑態勢嚴峻：衛浴店生意下滑三分之一，水暖器材店跌幅達70%，賣門的商鋪營業額更是暴跌80%。

Government data indicates that Ningbo’s troubles are worsening rapidly. Investments in new apartments, office buildings, factories and other fixed assets, once the cornerstone of China’s economy, unexpectedly fell 1.4 percent in 2024.

政府數據顯示，寧波的經濟困境正迅速加劇。曾是中國經濟發展基石的新建住宅、寫字樓、工廠等固定資產投資2024年意外下降1.4%。

Then last year, the bottom dropped out, according to data from the Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Statistics. Fixed-asset investment plummeted 21.4 percent last year.

寧波市統計局的數據顯示，固定資產投資去年更是急轉直下，同比跌幅高達21.4%。

In the West, national governments accelerate spending during economic downturns to cushion the shock. But in China, local governments do most of the spending, and they have long relied on land sales and other real-estate-related activities for revenue.

在西方國家，中央政府會在經濟下行期加大財政支出，以緩衝經濟衝擊。但在中國，財政支出的主體是地方政府，而地方政府長期以來都依賴土地出讓及其他與房地產相關的產業獲取財政收入。

As the property sector fell into a tailspin, Ningbo officials cut expenditures. The city’s spending dropped 5.6 percent last year, according to the municipal statistics agency. In the boom years before the pandemic, municipal spending had risen 11 to 13 percent annually.

隨著房地產行業陷入螺旋式下跌，寧波官方削減了開支。據寧波市統計局數據，去年全市財政支出同比下降5.6%；而在疫情前的經濟繁榮期，市財政支出年均增幅可達11%至13%。

Tang Feifan, Ningbo’s mayor, acknowledged the city’s difficulties in a speech last week. Ningbo lacks “follow-through” in major industrial projects, and there is “continued pressure on the stable growth of foreign trade and foreign investment,” he said. “Consumption potential has yet to be fully unleashed.”

寧波市市長湯飛帆在上週的講話中坦承了城市發展面臨的困境。他表示，寧波在重大產業項目「持續不足」，「外資外貿穩定增長持續承壓」，「消費潛能還需進一步激發」。

Only the city’s export factories are prospering.

如今，唯有當地的出口製造企業仍保持景氣。

“The real estate market has been so weak that almost no one is buying houses anymore,” said Jennie Yang, who runs the plumbing supplies store. “My business now mainly relies on longtime factory clients to keep things going.”

「房地產市場太差了，幾乎沒人再買房子了，」水暖器材店店主珍妮·楊（音）說。「我的生意現在主要就靠那些工廠的老客戶在維持。」

As local businesses struggle, China’s manufacturing prowess remains a bright spot. Ms. Jin’s toilet store was faring better than other construction materials shops, because of the popularity of high-tech toilets with electronic controls and bidet-like features — another example of a broader strengthening of China’s technical abilities.

依賴本地消費的商家舉步維艱的同時，中國的製造業實力仍是一個亮點。金女士的衛浴店生意比其他建材鋪稍好，得益於帶電控系統、坐浴功能的高科技智能馬桶十分暢銷——這也是中國整體技術實力不斷提升的又一例證。

When she entered the industry eight years ago, costlier, better-equipped toilets were imported. Now they come from Chinese factories.

八年前她入行時，品質更好、價格更高的馬桶還依賴進口；如今，這些產品均由中國本土工廠生產。

“China doesn’t need to rely on imports for many things anymore — we can produce them ourselves and, most importantly, at a very low price,” she said.

「中國現在很多東西都不用靠進口了，我們自己就能造，更重要的是，成本還特別低，」她說。

But even the export sector has difficulties. Severe overcapacity and President Trump’s new tariffs have led to falling prices, crippling companies’ profit margins. While factories are humming, they are increasingly automated, reducing the need for workers.

但即便是出口領域也並非毫無挑戰。嚴重的產能過剩疊加川普政府的新關稅政策，導致產品價格下跌，嚴重擠壓企業的利潤空間。儘管工廠裡機器不停運轉，但生產的自動化程度越來越高，減少了用工需求。

China’s elite, previously a leading market for Italian sports cars and French couture, has curbed spending. Even one of Ningbo’s oldest and most famous industries is shrinking: the production of wildly expensive handmade men’s suits.

曾是義大利跑車、法國高級定製時裝主要消費群體的中國高收入人群，如今也開始縮減開支。就連寧波歷史最悠久、最負盛名的產業之一——價格高昂的手工定製男裝生產——也在不斷萎縮。

The most expensive suits, made of vicuña wool, sell for up to $100,000. But one of Ningbo’s best-known tailor shops, Yinyi Hongbang, mainly sells suits now for around $2,000, made from less expensive fabrics.

當地知名的裁縫老字號胤一紅幫最貴的西裝採用小羊駝毛面料，要價70多萬元人民幣，但如今它主打售價約1.5萬元人民幣、採用普通面料的西裝。

“These days, orders are dropping across the country,” said Young Liu, manager of Yinyi’s main store in Ningbo.

「現在全國的訂單都在跌，」胤一紅幫寧波總店經理劉洋說。

Economic weakness has caused unhappiness among the city’s less affluent residents who have lost their savings or struggle to find full-time work. While China’s powerful security apparatus and censorship keep public displays of dissatisfaction under wraps, glimpses of resentment are readily found.

經濟下行讓寧波普通民眾怨聲載道，他們中有人積蓄耗盡，有人難以找到全職工作。儘管中國強大的安保體系和輿論管控壓制著公開不滿情緒，但怨憤跡象仍隨處可見。

“Everyone is complaining about how hard it is to get money, how hard it is to survive,” said a middle-aged resident who gave his family name, Yang. “People are very angry with the government.”

「每個人都在抱怨，現在賺錢太難了，活著太難了，」一位僅透露自己姓楊的中年市民說。「大家就是對政府氣很大。」