中國國防部長李尚福被免職,此前已近兩月未公開露面
China Dismisses Defense Minister Amid Swirl of Speculation

Just four months ago, China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, was at a forum for regional officials in Singapore, serving as the face of his country’s bold vision for reshaping Asia’s balance of power. He cast China as a force for stability and accused the United States of stirring trouble in the region, suggesting that its leaders should “mind your own business.”
就在四個月前,中國國防部長李尚福上將還代表著中國重塑亞洲力量平衡的大膽願景,出席了在新加坡舉行的一個地區官員論壇。他將中國描繪成能帶來穩定的力量,並批評美國在該地區製造麻煩,建議美國領導人「管好你自己」。
Now, General Li has been dismissed after nearly two months out of public view — the latest example of the opacity of high-level politics in China under Xi Jinping, the country’s top leader.
如今,在公眾視野中消失近兩個月後,李尚福遭到免職,這是中國高層政治在最高領導人習近平任內缺乏透明度的最新例證。
General Li, who had been appointed defense minister in March, is the second senior official to be purged this year without explanation and under a cloud of suspicion.
李尚福3月被任命為國防部長,他是今年第二位在沒有任何解釋的重重疑雲之下遭到清洗的高級官員。
The foreign minister, Qin Gang, was dismissed in July, amid speculation about a potentially compromising affair while he was an ambassador in the United States. The removal of the defense minister also followed an abrupt shake-up in August in the leadership of China’s nuclear force, the highest-level upheaval in China’s military in recent years.
外交部長秦剛在7月被免職,外界猜測的可能原因是他在擔任駐美國大使期間存在不當行為。而在李尚福被免職前,掌管中國核力量的領導層也在8月突遭撤換,這是近年來中國軍隊發生的最高級別的劇變。
廣告
The announcement on Tuesday ended some uncertainty about General Li’s professional fate but leaves open questions about whether he is being investigated over any offenses. Officials in the United States said last month that the Chinese authorities had placed him under investigation over corruption.
週二的聲明終結了關於李尚福官場命運的一些猜測,但仍留下了懸而未決的問題。美國官員上個月透露,中國當局已對他展開腐敗調查。
By dismissing General Li, Mr. Xi is seeking to “send a message to everyone that he is strictly in control of the military,” said Andrew Yang, a former defense minister of Taiwan and now a scholar of the Chinese military. “He also wants to stress that he has zero tolerance for corruption.”
通過罷免李尚福,習近平試圖「向所有人傳遞一個信息,那就是軍隊處於他的嚴格控制之下,」曾擔任台灣國防部長的中國軍事問題學者楊念祖表示。「他還想強調自己對腐敗是零容忍的。」
Mr. Xi is still regarded by experts as politically unassailable, with his authority buttressed by the loyalists he has packed into the Communist Party’s leadership, the military’s top brass and the security services. But the abrupt downfall of such high-ranking officials has raised questions about Mr. Xi’s judgment, especially because the officials under scrutiny had been promoted by him.
專家認為,習近平的政治地位依然無可撼動,他的權威得到了擁護者的支持,是他將這些人全都安插到了中共領導層、軍隊最高層和安全部門。但這些高級官員的突然落馬引發了對習近平判斷力的質疑,尤其是因為遭到調查的官員都是由他一手提拔的。

General Li and Mr. Qin were both picked by Mr. Xi for promotion less than a year ago, making their removal politically awkward, and damaging, for Mr. Xi, said Dennis Wilder, a former director for China at the White House’s National Security Council who now teaches at Georgetown University.
不到一年前,李尚福和秦剛才由習近平推舉上任,這使得他們的撤職在政治上讓習近平難堪,也有損於他的形象,曾擔任白宮國家安全委員會中國事務主任、現於喬治城大學任教的偉德寧(Dennis Wilder)表示。
“The way in which this has been done looks dysfunctional — the Chinese Communist Party usually comes up with a line, an explanation, for removing someone. Not this time,” said Mr. Wilder. This year, Mr. Xi’s government has also been buffeted by China’s painful economic slowdown, the aftermath of ending his strict “Zero Covid” policy, and the diplomatic fallout from Russia’s continued war in Ukraine, Mr. Wilder added.
「以這樣的方式(免職)看起來很不正常——中共通常會拿出個說法來解釋罷免某人的原因。但這次沒有,」偉德寧說。他補充道,習近平政府今年還面臨著國內經濟低迷的打擊,他實施嚴酷的「新冠清零」政策結束的後果,以及俄羅斯在烏克蘭的持續戰爭帶來的外交影響。
“For the Chinese Communist Party elite, all this will raise real concerns and worries,” he said. “But there is no successor to Xi on the horizon.”
「對黨內精英階層來說,所有這些問題都引發了真切的擔心和憂慮,」他說。「但習近平的繼任者還沒有出現。」
廣告
General Li’s ouster was announced by Chinese state media in brief reports that noted other official appointments and dismissals. The reports said the decision was made on Tuesday at the end of a meeting of the Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress — a council in the country’s Communist Party-controlled legislature that formally appoints senior government officials. Mr. Xi, as state president, signed off on the decisions.
中國官方媒體在簡短的報導中宣布了李尚福的免職,並提及了其他官員的任免情況。報導稱,這一決定是在週二的全國人大常務委員會的會議上作出的,該委員會屬於由中共控制的立法機關,負責政府高級官員的正式任命。習近平作為國家主席簽署了這些任免決定。
There was no word on who would replace General Li as defense minister, a position that serves as the military’s chief diplomat. Unlike the United States’ defense secretary, the Chinese minister of defense does not have a major say over the military. The party controls the military through the Central Military Commission, which is headed by is Mr. Xi.
目前還沒有傳出誰將接替李尚福擔任國防部長的消息,這一職務相當于軍隊的首席外交官。與美國國防部長不同,中國國防部長對軍隊事務沒有太大的發言權。中共通過以習近平為首的中央軍事委員會來控制軍隊。
Formally, at least, General Li still appeared on the Chinese defense ministry’s website on Tuesday as a member of the Central Military Commission. A separate Communist Party meeting due before the end of this year may remove him from that post.
至少在形式上,週二當天李尚福仍以中央軍委委員的身份出現在中國國防部的網站上。將於今年年底舉行的另一次黨內會議可能會解除他的這一職務。
The next defense minister will likely play a major role in talks with the United States, if the two sides resume high-level military contacts. U.S. officials have pushed to restart lines of military communication with China, a topic that may be discussed when the country’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, visits Washington later this week. Mr. Wang is expected to meet with Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and other officials.
如果中美兩國恢復高層軍事接觸,中國新任國防部長預計將在與美國的磋商中發揮重要作用。美國官員一直在推動重啟兩國軍事交流,中國最高外交政策負責人王毅將於本週晚些時候訪美,屆時這個話題可能會得到討論。王毅預計將與國務卿布林肯和其他官員舉行會晤。
Pentagon officials have argued the two militaries need to communicate often and promptly to avoid or defuse potential crises, especially as the two countries’ militaries regularly patrol disputed areas including the South China Sea, heightening the risk of an unintended conflict.
五角大廈官員相信,兩國軍隊需要進行頻繁而及時的溝通,主動避免或化解潛在危機,特別是因為兩國軍隊都定期在南海等爭議地區巡邏,這加大了發生意外衝突的風險。
But for years, U.S. military officials have found it difficult to arrange substantive talks with their Chinese counterparts, and China officially halted the high-level contacts in August 2022, after Nancy Pelosi, who was speaker of the House of Representatives at the time, visited Taiwan, which Beijing claims is its territory.
但多年來,美國軍方官員都發現很難安排與中國對等官員的實質性會談,而在2022年8月時任眾議院議長佩洛西訪問台灣後,中方正式停止了高層接觸。北京聲稱台灣屬於其領土。

This year, China rebuffed invitations from the United States for talks between General Li and Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, including at the regional security forum in Singapore in June.
今年——包括在6月新加坡舉辦的地區安全論壇期間——中國曾多次拒絕美國對李尚福和國防部長勞埃德·J·奧斯汀三世舉行會談的邀請。
Beijing had said that the Biden administration should first lift sanctions imposed on General Li in 2018, for purchases of Russian fighter jets and surface-to-air missiles, before the two defense officials could meet.
北京曾表示,在兩國國防部長會晤之前,拜登政府應先取消2018年因中國購買俄羅斯戰鬥機和地對空導彈而對李尚福實施的制裁。
廣告
News of General Li’s dismissal came just before China holds the Xiangshan Forum, an annual gathering in Beijing of Chinese and foreign military officials and experts, which is set to open on Sunday. China’s defense minister usually gives a keynote speech at the event.
李尚福被免職消息的公布正值中國舉辦香山論壇前夕,該論壇是中外軍事官員和專家的聚會,定於週日開幕。中國國防部長通常會在該論壇發表主題演講。
General Li was last seen in public in late August, when he spoke at a forum in Beijing attended by officials from African nations. That month, he had also traveled to Russia, where, speaking at a Moscow security conference, he warned against “playing with fire” when it came to Taiwan, the island democracy that China claims as its own and that the United States has expressed support for.
李尚福最後一次公開露面是在8月下旬,當時他在北京舉行的一場有非洲國家官員參與的論壇上發表了講話。他還在當月出訪了俄羅斯,在莫斯科的安全會議上警告稱不要在台灣問題上「玩火」,中國聲稱對這個有美國支持的民主島嶼擁有主權。
He added that any effort to “use Taiwan to contain China” would “surely end in failure.” In July, he met with Henry Kissinger during a visit to Beijing by the 100-year-old former secretary of state.
李尚福表示,任何「以台制華」的企圖都「必將以失敗告終」。7月,他在季辛吉訪華期間會見了這位百歲高齡的前國務卿。
For much of his career, General Li was involved in China’s space and rocket programs, developing missiles and other advanced weapons — a part of his résumé that has been the subject of scrutiny since the reports emerged about the potential corruption inquiry.
李尚福在職業生涯的大部分時間裡參與中國的太空和火箭計劃,負責了導彈和其他先進武器的研發。自從有報導稱他可能遭到腐敗調查後,他這部分的履歷就受到了密切關注。
In late July, Mr. Xi abruptly replaced the two top commanders of the Rocket Force, the arm of the Chinese military that oversees its nuclear missiles and much larger array of conventional missiles. The Chinese government gave no explanation for their ousting, but news reports in Hong Kong have linked the upheaval to an inquiry into corruption or other misconduct in the Rocket Force, which Mr. Xi created in late 2015.
7月底,習近平突然撤換了火箭軍的兩名最高指揮官,火箭軍是負責監管核彈以及更大規模的常規導彈的軍種。中國政府沒有對這兩位指揮官的罷黜做出解釋,但香港媒體報導稱,此番動盪與對火箭軍內部腐敗和其他不當行為的調查有關,該軍種由習近平在2015年設立。
“It looks like there’s a great deal of attention being paid to the military procurement side,” Mr. Wilder from Georgetown University said of the downfall of the Chinese generals. “There must be some real humdingers of issues to have brought on all this.”
「看起來是軍事採購上的問題引起了很大的關注,」喬治城大學的偉德寧在談到這兩名中國軍方首腦人物的落馬時表示。「肯定是出了什麼大問題才導致了這樣的後果。」
