China’s top general, second only to Xi Jinping, the nation’s leader, in the military command, has been put under investigation and accused of “grave violations of discipline and the law,” the Ministry of National Defense said on Saturday, the most stunning escalation yet in Mr. Xi’s purge of the People’s Liberation Army elite.
中國國防部週六表示,中國軍隊中地位僅次於國家領導人習近平的最高將領已被立案調查,並被指控存在「嚴重違紀違法」行為。這是習近平清洗解放軍高層行動中迄今為止最令人震驚的一次升級。
The general, Zhang Youxia, is a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the Communist Party body that controls China’s armed forces. Another member of the commission, Gen. Liu Zhenli, who leads the military’s Joint Staff Department, is also under investigation, the Defense Ministry said. Its announcement did not say what either general was alleged to have done wrong.
這名將領是中央軍委副主席張又俠,中央軍委是控制中國武裝力量的最高領導機構。國防部還表示,軍委另一名成員、負責領導聯合參謀部的劉振立上將也正在接受調查。官方通報未具體說明兩人涉嫌哪些不當行為。
General Zhang’s downfall — few if any Chinese officials placed publicly under investigation are later declared innocent — is the most drastic step so far in Mr. Xi’s yearslong campaign to root out what he has described as corruption and disloyalty in the military’s senior ranks. It is all the more astonishing because General Zhang seemed to be a confidant of Mr. Xi, who has known him for decades.
在習近平多年來清除軍隊高層其所謂腐敗和不忠行為的運動中,張又俠的落馬是迄今最激烈的一步(鮮有中國官員在被公開宣布接受調查後最終會被證明清白)。更令人震驚的是,張又俠似乎一直是習近平的親信,兩人相識已有數十年。
“This move is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese military and represents the total annihilation of the high command,” Christopher K. Johnson, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who follows Chinese elite politics, said of the investigation of General Zhang.
「這一舉動在中國軍事史上前所未有,等同於對最高統帥層的全面清洗,」長期關注中國高層政治的前美國中情局分析員克里斯托弗·K·強生在談到對張又俠的調查時說。
廣告
With the two generals effectively out, the Central Military Commission has just two members left: its chairman, Mr. Xi, and General Zhang Shengmin, who has overseen Mr. Xi’s military purges. Mr. Xi has now removed all but one of the six generals he appointed to the commission in 2022.
隨著這兩名將領實際上被撤職,中央軍委只剩下兩名成員:主席習近平以及負責監督習近平軍隊清洗行動的張升民將軍。習近平在2022年任命的六名中央軍委成員如今只剩下一名。
Mr. Johnson, the president of China Strategies Group, a consulting firm, said Mr. Xi seemed to have concluded that problems in the military ran so deep that he could not trust the top command to cure itself and must look to a new cohort of rising officers.
現任中國戰略集團(China Strategies Group)總裁的強生表示,習近平似乎已經認定,軍隊中的問題根深蒂固,無法指望最高指揮層自我糾錯,只能依靠正在崛起的新一代軍官。
He appears to have “decided he must cut very deep generationally to find a group not tainted,” Mr. Johnson said. “The purging of even a childhood friend in Zhang Youxia shows there now are no limits to Xi’s anti-graft zeal.”
他說,習近平顯然已經「決定必須徹底清除目前這一代,才能找到一批沒有被污染的人」。「就連張又俠這樣的發小也被清洗,說明習近平的反腐決心如今已沒有任何界限。」
張又俠的落馬是習近平多年來清除軍隊高層所謂腐敗和不忠行為的運動中迄今最激烈的舉措。
張又俠的落馬是習近平多年來清除軍隊高層所謂腐敗和不忠行為的運動中迄今最激烈的舉措。 Pool photo by Vincent Thian
Rumors that the general might be in trouble had spread for days, since official news reports left clues that he and General Liu had been absent from a Communist Party meeting. But General Zhang has disappeared from view before, and a senior official is usually out of sight for months before the party confirms that he is under investigation.
張又俠可能出事的傳言已流傳數日,因為官方新聞報導中留下了線索:他和劉振立缺席了一次中共會議。不過,張又俠過去也曾一度從公眾視野中消失,而一名高級官員通常會「隱身」數月後,黨內才會正式確認其正在接受調查。
The speed with which General Zhang’s ouster was announced seemed intended to staunch the potential damage for Mr. Xi, said Su Tzu-yun, an expert on the People’s Liberation Army, or P.L.A., at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in Taipei, a body funded by Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.
台灣國防部資助的智庫——台北國防安全研究院的解放軍問題專家蘇紫雲表示,迅速宣布張又俠落馬似乎是為了遏制此事可能對習近平造成的政治衝擊。
“This could be a big blow to morale inside the P.L.A.,” Mr. Su said in an interview, referring to the removal of a seemingly invulnerable commander.
「這個可能是對PLA(譯註:即解放軍)的士氣會是很大的打擊,」蘇紫雲在接受採訪時說,他指的是這樣一位看似不可動搖的指揮官被撤職。
廣告
General Zhang and General Liu were also the P.L.A.’s two top commanders for practical operational tasks, and their removal will leave a gap in experience, said Shanshan Mei, a political scientist at RAND, a research organization, who studies China’s armed forces.
研究機構蘭德公司的政治學者、研究中國軍隊的梅姍姍指出,張又俠和劉振立也是解放軍在實際作戰事務上的兩名最高指揮官,他們被撤職將造成經驗上的真空。
“There’s no one right now at the highest level who has operational experience or who is in charge of training and exercises,” Ms. Mei said. “This is going to cut very deep, and there’s more to come, possibly.”
梅姍姍說,「目前在最高層級沒有人具備實戰經驗,也沒有人負責訓練和演習。這將造成非常嚴重的打擊,而且這可能還只是開始。」
General Zhang, 75, had seemed to be cordoned off from Mr. Xi’s widening purges. The two men’s fathers, both veterans of Mao Zedong’s revolutionary wars, were personally acquainted, and Mr. Xi had kept General Zhang in office beyond the customary retirement age of about 70.
現年75歲的張又俠此前似乎一直被排除在習近平不斷擴大的清洗行動之外。兩人的父親都是毛澤東革命戰爭時期的老兵,彼此相識,習近平還打破慣例讓張又俠在約70歲的退休年齡後繼續留任。
But Mr. Xi’s worries about the trustworthiness of his commanders seemed to finally outweigh whatever attachment he felt to the general, Mr. Su said. “I think this reflects Xi Jinping’s personal sense of insecurity, and that’s a major factor in his purges of the military,” he said.
但蘇紫雲認為,習近平對指揮官忠誠度的擔憂最終還是壓倒了他對張又俠的個人情感。「我認為這反映了習近平個人強烈的不安全感,而這正是他清洗軍隊的一個重要因素。」
Since 2023, waves of top commanders, officers and executives for arms manufacturers have been removed from office and placed under investigation — or, in some cases, have disappeared from view without explanation.
自2023年以來,一波又一波的高級指揮官、軍官以及軍工企業高管被撤職並接受調查——有些人甚至在沒有任何解釋的情況下從公眾視野中消失。
The first purges in that wave focused on China’s Rocket Force, which operates most of its nuclear missiles and many of its conventional ones. Ensuing investigations took down admirals, regional military commanders and members of the Central Military Commission.
這一輪清洗最初集中在火箭軍身上,該部隊掌管中國大多數核導彈和許多常規導彈。隨後,調查又波及海軍上將、戰區司令以及中央軍委成員。
廣告
Many of the targeted officers had been promoted by Mr. Xi since he took power in 2012, vowing to cleanse the armed forces of endemic graft. But after a decade in charge, he seemed to have concluded that some of his own handpicked protégés had been infected by the military’s corruption, which historically has often involved taking bribes for contracts or promotions.
許多被針對的軍官都是習近平自2012年上台後親自提拔的,當時他誓言要清除軍隊中根深蒂固的腐敗問題。但執政十年之後,他似乎已認定,自己親手挑選的一些親信也染上了軍中腐敗的痼疾——這種腐敗在歷史上往往表現為通過合同或晉陞收受賄賂。
The investigations’ toll on the military was visible at a meeting last year of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, a council of top officials. Of the 44 uniformed officers appointed to the committee in 2022, 29 — roughly two-thirds — had been purged or were missing, according to calculations made by Neil Thomas, a researcher on Chinese politics at the Asia Society.
調查對軍隊造成的衝擊在去年中共召開的一次中央委員會會議上已清晰可見。根據亞洲協會研究中國政治的學者牛犇(Neil Thhomas)的統計,2022年進入該委員會的44名現役軍官中,有29人——約三分之二——已被清洗或從公眾視野中消失。
Mr. Xi seems to have calculated that in the longer term, his shake-up of the military will make it less corrupt, more loyal and more effective in pursuing his goals, like putting pressure on Taiwan, the island democracy that rejects China’s claims of sovereignty.
分析人士認為,習近平似乎有自己的盤算,認為從長遠來看,這場對軍隊的整頓將使其更加廉潔、更忠誠,也更有能力執行他的目標,比如對拒絕中國主權主張的民主島嶼台灣施加壓力。
But for now, and potentially for years, the disruptions caused by the purges could leave Mr. Xi less confident that his commanders are ready for combat, analysts have said.
但在當前以及未來可能數年內,這些清洗行動造成的動盪反而可能讓習近平對其指揮官是否做好了作戰準備更加缺乏信心。
“It’s a dilemma,” said Mr. Su, the Taiwan-based analyst. “He wants to first get rid of these so-called corrupt people, but for the P.L.A., if you clear out these high-level officers, that means a whole lot of experience is gone.”
蘇紫雲說,「(這)是一個兩難,因為他要先把這些所謂貪腐的人清除掉,但是對解放軍來講,你把這些高層的人清理掉了,那麼等於說整個經驗就沒有了。」
General Zhang was among the few Chinese commanders with extensive experience in battle. The son of a general, he gained prominence as a frontline officer during China’s last war, a border conflict with Vietnam that began in 1979 and lasted for years. He rose to become head of the General Armaments Department, which is in charge of procuring weapons, and Mr. Xi promoted him to the Central Military Commission in 2017.
張又俠是少數擁有豐富實戰經驗的中國將領之一。作為一名將軍之子,他在中國最近一次戰爭——1979年爆發並持續多年的中越邊境衝突中擔任前線軍官並嶄露頭角。他後來升任總裝備部部長,負責武器採購事務,並於2017年被習近平提拔進入中央軍委。
廣告
“For Zhang Youxia, having combat experience — and being one of the only left who has any — has to add to his luster, at least to Xi Jinping,” John Culver, a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst specializing in the Chinese military, said in an interview before General Zhang’s dismissal was announced.
「對張又俠來說,擁有作戰經驗——而且幾乎是僅存的幾位擁有這種經驗的人之一——至少在習近平眼中是一個加分項,」在張又俠被宣布接受調查前,曾長期研究中國軍隊的前中情局分析員約翰·卡爾弗在一次採訪中說。
But analysts speculated that General Zhang’s time in the General Armaments Department — which, because it controls arms contracts, became known as a honey pot of corruption — may have planted the seeds of his downfall. Other generals who rose through that department have also been purged, including Li Shangfu, a former defense minister.
但分析人士推測,張又俠在總裝備部任職的經歷可能早已埋下他落馬的伏筆,該部門由於掌控軍火合同而被視為腐敗的溫床。其他同樣出身總裝備部的將領也已被清洗,包括前國防部長李尚福
Mr. Xi may need years or more to nurture a new crop of — presumably — trustworthy officers, and he must also fill the depleted ranks of the Central Military Committee.
習近平或許需要多年時間來培育一批新的、被認為值得信任的軍官,同時還必須填補中央軍委人員的空缺。
“To rebuild these chains of command may take him five years or longer,” Mr. Su said. “The chances of an attack on Taiwan in the short term have been lowered.”
蘇紫雲說,「未來他要重建這些指揮鏈條可能還要五年以上,那短期內說要打台灣的可能性就更低一些了。」