Voters elected Donald Trump in part because they wanted a fighter. But increasingly it seems that in international trade, he’s good at shaking his fist for the cameras but utterly outclassed when he steps into the boxing ring.

選民們之所以選擇唐納德·川普，一定程度上是因為他們想要一個敢於鬥爭的人。但在國際貿易領域，情況似乎越來越明顯：他善於在鏡頭前揮舞拳頭作秀，然而一旦進入拳擊場，卻完全不是對手。

Indeed, Trump may be more dangerous to his own side of a trade war than to the other guy.

事實上，在貿易戰中，川普對己方的殺傷力甚至遠超對手。

Even after Trump’s climb-down — declaring a 90-day pause on many of the “Liberation Day” levies that sent the stock market reeling — America’s tariff rates remain the highest in more than 90 years. They amount to an enormous tax hike on consumers, with researchers previously estimating that they might add something like $1,700 in costs per year to a middle-income American family. They’re a reason many economists fear that the United States is slipping into a recession.

The most heated trade war is with China, and it’s there that I fear Trump has particularly miscalculated. He seems to be waiting for President Xi Jinping to cry uncle and demand relief, but that’s unlikely; instead, it may be the United States that will be most desperate to end the trade conflict.

最為激烈的貿易戰是與中國之間的，我擔心川普在這方面的判斷失誤尤其嚴重。他似乎在等待習近平主席認輸求饒，但這種情況不太可能出現；相反，最終最急於結束這場貿易衝突的或許會是美國。

China does have serious internal economic challenges, including widespread underemployment and a deflationary loop with no end in sight. The trade war could cost China millions of jobs, and that raises some risks of political instability.

Yet it’s also true that China has prepared for this trade war. I’m guessing some Chinese factories are already printing “Made in Vietnam” labels and preparing to ship goods through third countries. And China will fight with weapons that go far beyond tariffs.

然而，中國也的確為這場貿易戰做好了準備。我猜一些中國工廠已經在印製「越南製造」的標籤，準備借道他國。而且，中國的武器不僅僅是關稅。

China buys agricultural products and airplanes from America, and it can almost certainly get what it needs elsewhere. But where is the United States going to get rare-earth minerals, essential for American industry and the military-industrial base?

These days we rely on China for 72 percent of the 17 metals known as rare earths, used in everything from glass to ceramics to catalytic converters. And in the subcategory of heavy rare earths, China is the sole world producer of six.

在統稱為稀土的17種金屬中，我們目前72%的需求依賴中國。這些稀土廣泛應用於玻璃、陶瓷、催化轉化器等各種產品中。而在重稀土這一子類別下，中國是其中六種金屬的全球唯一生產國。

China has already announced that it will limit the export of those six heavy-rare-earth minerals, as well as rare-earth magnets, of which it controls 90 percent of the world supply. In effect, China is the OPEC of rare earths, which are essential for American industry and for military production. Without them, we’d struggle to produce drones, cars, planes, wind turbines and more. A single F-35 fighter plane contains some 900 pounds of rare earths, and a submarine may use more than four tons of them.

中國已經宣布，將限制這六種重稀土礦物以及稀土磁體的出口，而全球90%的稀土磁體來自中國。實際上，中國就是稀土的歐佩克，而稀土對於美國工業和軍工生產至關重要。沒有稀土，我們將難以生產無人機、汽車、飛機、風力渦輪機等產品。一架F-35戰鬥機含有約410公斤稀土，而一艘潛艇可能需要用到超過四噸的稀土。

In 2010, when China and Japan were caught in a maritime dispute after a boat collision in contested waters, Beijing halted rare-earth exports to Japan. The result was a mad scramble in Japan to find sufficient rare earths to keep factories open, and Japan hurriedly became conciliatory and pleaded for a resumption in the trade.

2010年，中日兩國在爭議水域發生撞船事故，引發海事糾紛，中國政府停止了對日本的稀土出口。結果在日本國內引發稀土資源的瘋狂爭奪，以尋找足夠的稀土維持工廠的運轉，日本匆忙擺出和解姿態，懇求恢復稀土供應。

Perhaps Trump thinks he’ll find alternative sources of rare earths. We should. But because rare earths are polluting to mine and process, it can take nearly three decades to get permission to open and operate a rare-earth mine in America, so finding substitutes won’t be easy.

Rare earths aren’t all that rare in nature, despite their name, and they offer a window into the vulnerability of the West’s military-industrial base and our dependence on China. Until 1995, they were produced mostly in the United States. But then China began refining them inexpensively, and the United States couldn’t compete (and didn’t seriously try to).

稀土雖然名為稀土，但在自然界中並不那麼稀有，它們為了解西方軍事工業基礎的脆弱性，以及我們對中國的依賴，提供了一個窗口。1995年之前，稀土的主要生產國是美國。但後來中國開始以低廉的價格進行提煉，美國無法與之競爭（而且也沒有認真去嘗試競爭）。

Trump’s concerns about China are in many ways legitimate: It has manipulated trade. He’s right that our weakness in manufacturing and supply lines is a critical security deficiency, especially given China’s strengths in areas like drones and batteries. I’d be delighted if Trump tackled these issues seriously with targeted tariffs, a crackdown on transshipments to evade tariffs, subsidies for critical industries at home and cooperation with allies abroad. Instead, it’s not quite clear what his aim is, and the United States has gone out of its way to antagonize allies.

川普對中國的擔憂在很多方面都是合理的：中國確實存在操縱貿易的行為。他說得沒錯，我們在製造業和供應鏈方面的薄弱是一個關鍵的安全缺陷，尤其是考慮到中國在無人機和電池等領域的優勢。如果川普能夠通過有針對性的關稅、打擊逃避關稅的轉運行為、對國內關鍵產業提供補貼、與國外盟友合作等方式來認真解決這些問題，我會感到很高興。然而，目前尚不清楚他的目標究竟是什麼，而且美國還不遺餘力地去激怒盟友。

One alarming sign: Even before the latest tariffs, a poll in Southeast Asia found that for the first time, a majority of people there would choose China over the United States if forced to align with one side or the other.

China has other tools available in this trade war with America beyond stopping most exports of rare earths. It could stop its limited cooperation on narcotics and turn a blind eye to its greedy private companies that would like to export fentanyl to America or fentanyl precursor chemicals to Mexico. Conversely, it could tighten shipments to the United States of cardiovascular or cancer medicines that Americans rely on.

在這場與美國的貿易戰中，除了停止大部分稀土出口外，中國還有其他手段可用。中國可以停止在麻醉品問題上的有限合作，對那些希望向美國出口吩坦尼或向墨西哥出口吩坦尼前體化學品的貪婪的民營企業視而不見。它還可以反過來收緊向美國出口美國人所依賴的心血管或抗癌藥物。

China could also dump U.S. Treasuries for a few days, panicking the bond market and weakening the dollar. I doubt China would do this for long, because it would lose as well, but it might be satisfying for the Politburo to remind Trump who he’s messing with.

中國也可以拋售美國國債個幾天，引發債券市場恐慌並削弱美元。我不相信中國會長時間這麼做，因為它自己也會遭受巨大損失，但政治局會很滿意，因為這能讓川普明白自己幾斤幾兩。

While all that’s going on, the People’s Liberation Army might cut multiple undersea internet cables leading to Taiwan. It could hold more military drills off Taiwan, the Philippines or the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. It has already burrowed into American infrastructure as part of its Volt Typhoon cyberespionage campaign and could try turning the lights off in a small American city or creating havoc for a day in the banking system.

在這一切發生的同時，中國人民解放軍可能會切斷多條通往台灣的海底電纜。它可能會在台灣、菲律賓或釣魚島附近舉行更多的軍事演習。作為「伏特颱風」網路間諜活動的一部分，它已經侵入了美國的基礎設施，可以嘗試切斷美國小城市的電力供應，或者給銀行系統帶來一天的大混亂。

A trade war may well be devastating for China as well as for America. But economic forecasters think a recession is far more likely in the United States than in China. And Xi may now have a scapegoat for his economic underperformance, calling on his citizens to resist what he will portray as one more chapter in a two-century history of Western bullying. All in all, Xi may be better positioned to ride out a downturn than Trump.

貿易戰對中國和美國都可能造成毀滅性的後果。但經濟預測人士認為，美國出現經濟衰退的可能性遠遠大於中國。而對於習近平來說，現在可能給經濟表現不佳找了個替罪羊，他稱這是西方兩個世紀的凌辱的又一事例，呼籲民眾奮起反抗。總而言之，與川普相比，習近平可能更有能力渡過經濟衰退。

There’s nothing wrong with picking the right fight and taking a stand, and China’s trade policies are a legitimate target. But Trump’s campaign seems destined to fracture our alliances and magnify American weakness. He is taking a tariff to a gunfight.

選擇正確的衝突並表明立場本身沒有錯，而且中國的貿易政策是一個合理的目標。但川普發起的這場行動似乎註定會破壞我們與盟友的關係，並且放大美國的弱點。他這是拿著關稅去跟別人的槍炮作戰。