The world will look to Seoul next week as leaders gather for a major economic summit and President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China are expected to meet for the first time since 2019. Both leaders hope the meeting will stabilize the superpowers’ rocky relations. But even a détente in the U.S.-China trade war will not restore faith in America’s economic leadership. By continuing to wield sky-high tariffs punitively, unilaterally and unpredictably, Mr. Trump has upended the rules-based international economic order that America led for 80 years.

下週，全球目光將聚焦首爾。屆時各國領導人將齊聚此地，舉行一場重大經濟峰會，美國總統川普與中國國家主席習近平預計將自2019年以來首次會晤。兩位領導人都希望此次會晤能穩定兩大強國動盪的關係。但即便中美貿易戰出現緩和，也難以重建外界對美國經濟領導力的信心。川普持續單方面、不可預測地施加天價懲罰性關稅，已顛覆了美國主導80年的基於規則的國際經濟秩序。

The tariff campaign is but one prong of Mr. Trump’s assault on the laws and institutions Washington designed to advance its own power and privilege after World War II. The world is now grappling with what it means for the reigning global leader to renounce the very system designed to sustain its rule. Without a plan for what comes next and no natural successor, the United States is not only hastening its own decline but also forcing the world into a new era of disorder.

川普對華盛頓戰後為鞏固自身權力與特權而設計的法律和制度發起了衝擊，關稅行動只是其中一個方面。世界正努力理解，當全球霸權國家背棄支撐其統治的體系時，這意味著什麼。在缺乏未來計劃且沒有自然繼任者的情況下，美國不僅在加速自身的衰落，更將世界推入一個混亂的新時代。

Throughout modern history, wars have wrecked global systems, with new structures emerging afterward. Following World War II, America and its allies designed an approach to govern the relations among nations in hopes of restoring prosperity to a devastated globe and preventing future conflict. The United Nations stood as the primary governing body, while other rules and institutions, such as the World Trade Organization, were built alongside it over time. At the apex of its power and the only Allied country to have avoided the destruction of total war, the United States became the leader and operator of this new world order.

縱觀現代史，戰爭屢屢摧毀全球體系，新的結構則在廢墟中重建。第二次世界大戰結束後，美國及其盟友設計出一套管理國家間關係的體系，旨在讓飽受戰火摧殘的世界重獲繁榮，並防止未來的衝突。聯合國成為這一體系的主要治理機構，而世界貿易組織等其他規則與制度也隨後逐步建立。當時的美國處於國家力量的巔峰時期，而且是唯一一個未遭全面戰爭蹂躪的同盟國，成為這一新世界秩序的領導者與操盤者。

The post-World War II system was successful precisely because it delivered for America’s partners, too. Political, economic and security cooperation created stability, predictability and political and economic gains for many nations. Washington accepted restraints on its power because it recognized that securing other countries’ buy-in was a more effective strategy for advancing its global aims than coercion. While this global order was undoubtedly imperfect and in many ways outmoded, it still gave Washington the advantage when Mr. Trump took office for a second term in January.

「二戰」後的國際體系之所以成功，恰恰在於它同樣惠及了美國的夥伴。政治、經濟與安全領域的合作為眾多國家創造了穩定性、可預測性及政治經濟收益。華盛頓之所以願意在一定程度上約束自身權力，是因為它認識到：相較於脅迫手段，爭取他國認同更能有效地推動其全球目標。儘管這一全球秩序無疑存在缺陷且在多方面已顯陳舊，但當川普於今年1月開啟第二任期時，它仍為華盛頓提供優勢。

Now the Trump administration is on a campaign of systemic incineration. “The postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us,” Marco Rubio said during his January secretary of state confirmation hearing. Rather than free and open trade, the administration has enacted crippling tariffs, punishing not just violators of trade rules like China but also American allies and American consumers with the higher prices that come from tariffs.

如今，川普政府正展開一場系統性的「焚毀行動」。「戰後全球秩序不僅已經過時，它現在還成了一種被用來對付我們的武器。」馬可·魯比奧在1月的國務卿任命聽證會上如此說道。川普政府非但未推行自由開放的貿易政策，反而實施了沉重的關稅，不僅懲罰了像中國這樣違反貿易規則的國家，也連帶懲罰了美國的盟友以及本國消費者，後者不得不承擔因關稅帶來的更高物價。

Rather than upholding sovereignty and the principle of nonaggression, Mr. Trump is threatening military action against Venezuela, yet took no concrete action when Russia violated NATO airspace. Mr. Trump has courted autocratic leaders like Vladimir Putin of Russia, Mr. Xi and Kim Jong Un of North Korea while suggesting Washington might not defend its democratic allies.

川普不僅沒有維護主權與不侵略原則，還威脅要對委內瑞拉採取軍事行動；而當俄羅斯侵犯北約領空時，他未採取任何實質性措施。與此同時，川普試圖拉攏俄羅斯的普丁、中國的習近平以及朝鮮的金正恩等專制領導人，卻暗示華盛頓可能不會保衛其民主盟友。

It is a stunning act of superpower suicide: Never before has the world’s reigning superpower intentionally dismantled a system designed to sustain its own leadership, particularly while those trappings were returning enormous benefits.

這是一場令人震驚的超級大國自殺行為：歷史上從未有過一個全球主導力量主動拆解支撐自身領導地位的體系，尤其是在這一體系仍為其帶來巨大利益之時。

This era will not end in one convulsion — the kind of Big Bang event that has historically birthed new world orders. Instead, the next several years will almost certainly be a chaotic interregnum whose contours are coming into focus. The United States will remain immensely powerful, even if capricious and performative. The old institutions will no doubt endure: The U.N. will still convene and judges will review cases at the World Trade Organization, but with diminished capacity to overcome member nations’ natural tendency toward competition and conflict. Shared challenges, from pandemics to climate change to artificial intelligence, may go largely unaddressed.

這一時代的終結不會以一次劇烈震盪告終——不會出現那種在歷史上催生新世界秩序的「大爆炸」式事件。實際上，未來幾年幾乎可以肯定，將是一段混亂的過渡期，其輪廓正逐漸顯現。美國仍將極具影響力，儘管其行為可能依然反覆無常、流於表演。舊有的機構無疑會繼續存在：聯合國仍將召開會議，世界貿易組織的法官仍會審理案件，但這些機構克服成員國間競爭與衝突本能的能力將顯著減弱。而從疫情到氣候變化，再到人工智慧等全球共同挑戰，或許將很大程度上得不到有效應對。

A more disorderly world will almost certainly be a more violent one. This has already been a bloody year, including armed conflicts in South and Southeast Asia and Israeli strikes in Qatar, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Iran, as well as wars in Sudan, Ukraine and Gaza. The Trump administration joined Israel in its war on Iran, and led its own strikes against the Houthis and in the Caribbean. Mr. Trump professes to want peace, but, apart from the recent Gaza cease-fire, appears more focused on lobbying for the Nobel Peace Prize than for the sustained execution that makes peace deals stick.

一個更加無序的世界幾乎註定也將更加暴力。今年已然血腥異常——南亞和東南亞爆發了武裝衝突，以色列對卡達、敘利亞、黎巴嫩、葉門和伊朗發動了襲擊，蘇丹、烏克蘭和加薩的戰爭仍在持續。川普政府加入了以色列對伊朗的戰爭，並單獨對胡塞武裝以及加勒比地區發動了打擊。川普宣稱自己渴望和平，但除最近的加薩停火外，他似乎更熱衷於遊說，讓自己獲得諾貝爾和平獎，而非致力於讓和平協議真正落地、持久生效。

These clashes may extend to the economic sphere. Nationalism and mercantilism are supplanting the prevailing premium on free and open trade, with America leading the charge with the highest tariffs in a century. Economic disintegration will not only slow global growth, it will also pit countries against one another in a race to acquire resources, from critical minerals to advanced semiconductors.

這些衝突可能還會蔓延至經濟領域。民族主義與重商主義正在取代以自由開放貿易為核心的主導理念，美國正以一個世紀以來最高關稅走在這場轉變的最前列。經濟解體不僅將拖累全球增長，還會讓各國為爭奪資源——從關鍵礦產到先進半導體——而相互競爭，陷入新的博弈。

The world will need a new ordering force. There are no signs that one will be forthcoming. As China gains ground, it is unequipped to take up the American mantle. Beijing seeks a world that is safe for autocracy, allowing it to entrench party control at home and spread its influence abroad without interference. But it does not have viable plans for how to reduce conflict, create financial stability or manage transnational threats like nuclear proliferation.

世界需要新的秩序力量，但目前尚無跡象表明這種力量即將出現。隨著中國實力的增強，它尚且無力接過美國的衣缽。北京追求的是一個對專制政體安全的國際環境，使其能夠在國內鞏固黨內控制，並在海外不受干擾地擴大影響力。但中國既沒有切實可行的計劃來減少衝突、創造金融穩定，也沒有應對核擴散等跨國威脅的有效方案。

America’s democratic allies in Asia and Europe may yet pull together to preserve what they can of the liberal international order. Taken together, they match America’s weight in G.D.P. terms. But domestic resistance at home to growing defense budgets in an increasingly tough economic landscape may stymie their ambitions.

美國在亞洲和歐洲的民主盟友或許仍能聯合起來，盡力維護自由國際秩序中殘留的部分。從整體上看，它們的國內生產總值與美國不相上下。然而，在經濟日益嚴峻的背景下，各國國內對不斷增長的國防預算的抵制可能會阻礙它們的雄心。

Years from now, an American president may have the opportunity to work alongside other global leaders to build a new international order and blunt China’s gains. They will face the closest thing to a geopolitical clean slate that we have seen since 1945. A new vision could turn disorder into an opportunity for reinvention: by deepening technological, economic and security cooperation with select American allies; seeding innovative approaches to economic development; or building institutions to include leading companies alongside countries. Political aspirants preparing for that moment today must begin by recognizing there is no going back to the way things were.

許多年後，一位美國總統或許有機會與其他全球領導人攜手，共同構建新的國際秩序，並遏制中國的崛起。在此過程中，他們將面對自1945年以來最接近「地緣政治白板」的局面。新的願景有可能將混亂轉化為重塑的機會：通過與特定美國盟友深化技術、經濟與安全合作；推動經濟發展的創新模式；或建立讓領先企業與各國合作的機構。今天在為那一刻做準備的政治領袖首先必須意識到：已無法回到舊有格局。