President Trump announced last week that he would allow China to buy an advanced artificial intelligence chip, the H200, from the American company Nvidia, doubling down on a misguided decision he made over the summer to sell China another advanced chip, the H20. The H200 is about six times as powerful and will be an even greater boon to China’s military and A.I. development.
川普總統上週宣布，將允許中國從美國企業英偉達公司購買先進人工智慧晶片H200。他在今年夏天已做出向中國出售另一款先進晶片H20的錯誤決定，如今更是錯上加錯。H200的性能約為H20的六倍，將為中國的軍事和人工智慧發展提供更大助力。
Mr. Trump explained that in return, the U.S. government will charge a 25 percent fee on all sales of the H200. But U.S. national security and technological dominance shouldn’t ever have a price — let alone such a low one.
川普解釋稱，作為交換，美國政府將對H200的所有銷售額收取25%的費用。但美國的國家安全和技術主導地位絕不應被標價出售——更不用說以如此低廉的價格。
For years, both the Trump and Biden administrations had successfully sought as large a lead as possible over China in A.I. In 2018, the first Trump administration wisely cut off key companies in China from the most advanced chip-making equipment. In 2020, Mr. Trump helped reverse the deployment of nonsecure Chinese 5G telecommunications networks by Britain and other allies by banning the sale of advanced chips to the Chinese tech giant Huawei. The Biden administration substantially expanded those controls and added new ones. Both administrations said that China would use American-made chips to develop more sophisticated A.I. and modernize its military.
多年來，川普和拜登政府均成功緻力於在人工智慧領域盡可能擴大針對中國的領先優勢。2018年，川普第一任期政府明智地切斷了中國主要企業獲取最先進晶片製造設備的管道；2020年，川普通過禁止向中國科技巨頭華為出售先進晶片，幫助英國及其他盟友放棄部署不安全的中國5G電信網路。拜登政府大幅擴展了這些管控措施，並新增了多項限制。兩屆政府均表示，中國會利用美國製造的晶片開發更尖端的人工智慧技術，實現軍事現代化。
Hampered by those policies, China has struggled to make advanced A.I. chips, despite a push of around $200 billion starting in 2014. None of China’s chips are close to matching the capacity of the H200. Huawei, a leading Chinese chipmaker, projects that it will not be able to match the H200’s performance until the end of 2027 at the earliest — and even that estimate sounds optimistic.
儘管中國自2014年起投入約2000億美元推動晶片產業發展，但受上述政策限制，其先進人工智慧晶片的研發與生產面臨困難。目前中國生產的晶片性能均遠未達到H200的水平。中國領先晶片製造商華為預計，其產品最早要到2027年底才能達到H200的性能標準——而這個預估本身就顯得過於樂觀。
廣告
In addition to making less capable chips, China struggles to make them in large quantities. Trump administration officials testified in June that China will make just 200,000 chips per year — not even enough for a single data center. By contrast, Taiwan, the United States and the rest of the democratic world will produce more than 10 million far-superior chips per year. All told, China will produce a total computing power that is a mere 1 percent to 3 percent of what U.S. companies will produce.
除了晶片性能不足，中國在大規模量產方面也面臨挑戰。川普政府官員今年6月作證稱，中國每年僅能生產20萬枚晶片，甚至不足以滿足單個數據中心的需求。相比之下，台灣、美國及其他民主國家每年將生產超過1000萬枚性能遠超中國產品的晶片。總體而言，中國晶片提供的總算力僅為美國企業的1%至3%。
The chief executive of DeepSeek, a prominent A.I. company in China, admitted in 2024 that access to chips was the company’s biggest impediment. In the summer of 2025, DeepSeek reportedly tried and failed to train a new system on Chinese chips. When DeepSeek released its latest model several weeks ago, it acknowledged that the system still lags behind U.S. versions and cited computing limitations as the key reason.
中國知名人工智慧企業深度求索的首席執行官於2024年承認，獲取晶片是公司發展的最大障礙。2025年夏天，有報導稱深度求索嘗試用中國本土晶片訓練新系統，但以失敗告終。幾週前該公司發布最新模型時也承認，其系統性能仍落後於美國同類產品，並指出算力限制是主要原因。
After Mr. Trump’s announcement last week, Chinese companies jumped at the chance to buy the H200 — more evidence that America’s chip advantage is real.
川普上週宣布相關決定後，中國企業紛紛抓住機會搶購H200——這進一步證明了美國的晶片優勢是實實在在的。
The Trump administration argues that selling chips to China will keep China “addicted” to American products and undermine its efforts to improve production. But China knows better. In the days since Mr. Trump announced his decision to sell the H200, there have been reports that China will invest an additional $70 billion to improve its domestic production of chips. According to a report on Sunday in the Global Times, which is controlled by China’s ruling party, Nvidia’s advanced chips would be used only until Chinese tech companies can transition to domestic alternatives.
川普政府辯稱，向中國出售晶片將使中國「依賴」美國產品，從而阻礙其提升本土產能的努力。但中國對此有著清醒的認識。川普宣布出售H200的決定後數日，就有報導稱中國將追加投資700億美元，用於提升本土晶片產能。據中共旗下《環球時報》上週日報導，英偉達的先進晶片僅會被中國科技企業用於完成向本土替代產品的過渡。
It’s all part of the same pattern, whether the product is solar panels, electric vehicles or telecommunications: China imports Western technology until its own production catches up; then it cuts out American companies. President Xi Jinping has long said that relying on others for core technology “is like building a house on someone else’s foundation.”
無論是太陽能電池板、電動汽車還是電信設備，中國都遵循著相同的模式：在本土產能趕上之前進口西方技術，隨後將美國企業排擠出局。習近平主席長期以來一直強調，核心技術依賴他人就像「在別人的地基上蓋房子」。
It should be obvious that the United States should not sell China advanced technology that China could use to target American troops and intelligence officers. Advanced A.I. will improve China’s cyber operations, intelligence analysis and weaponry. According to reports, the Trump White House has concluded that Alibaba, one of China’s biggest A.I. companies, provides technology support for the Chinese military, including some of its operations against U.S. targets. (Alibaba has denied this claim.) Other reports suggest that DeepSeek evades U.S. export controls and aids Chinese military and intelligence operations. Chinese procurement documents show that the People’s Liberation Army is also trying to get its hands on advanced U.S. chips.
美國顯然不應向中國出售其可能用於攻擊美軍和情報人員的先進技術。先進人工智慧將提升中國的網路作戰、情報分析能力和武器裝備水平。有報導稱，川普政府已得出結論：中國最大的人工智慧企業之一阿里巴巴為中國軍隊提供技術支持，包括部分針對美國目標的行動（阿里巴巴否認了這一說法）。另有報導顯示，深度求索公司規避美國出口管制，為中國軍事和情報行動提供協助。中國採購文件表明，中國人民解放軍也在設法獲取美國先進晶片。
廣告
The bipartisan House committee on China was right when it said last week that China will use the H200 to “strengthen its military capabilities and totalitarian surveillance,” and when it recommended tightening export controls rather than loosening them.
跨黨派的眾議院中國問題委員會上週指出，中國將利用H200「強化其軍事能力和極權監控體系」，並建議收緊而非放寬出口管制——這一判斷是完全正確的。
The Trump administration is well aware of how much A.I. matters to national security, which makes its decision even more baffling. Pete Hegseth, the defense secretary, last week proclaimed, “The future of American warfare is here, and it’s spelled ‘A.I.’” And when the Department of Justice recently announced charges against two individuals accused of smuggling H200s to China, it underscored the national security issues: “These chips are the building blocks of A.I. superiority and are integral to modern military applications. The country that controls these chips will control A.I. technology; the country that controls A.I. technology will control the future.”
川普政府深知人工智慧對國家安全的重要性，這使其決策更令人費解。國防部長彼特·海格塞斯上週宣稱：「美國戰爭的未來已至，其關鍵在於人工智慧。」美國司法部最近對兩名被控向中國走私H200晶片的個人提起訴訟時，也著重強調了國家安全問題：「這些晶片是人工智慧優勢的基石，對現代軍事應用至關重要。掌控這些晶片的國家將掌控人工智慧技術，而掌控人工智慧技術的國家將掌控未來。」
For now, that country is the United States. In 2017, Li Keqiang, China’s premier at the time, told Mr. Trump during a meeting in Beijing that China would come to dominate all technologies, including A.I., and that America would export little more than soybeans and corn. Last week’s decision helps make that unlikely dream a reality.
目前，這個國家依然是美國。但在2017年，時任中國國務院總理李克強在北京會見川普時稱，中國終將主導包括人工智慧在內的所有技術領域，而美國屆時除了大豆和玉米將幾乎沒有其他可出口的產品。川普上週的決定正助力這一看似遙不可及的夢想逐步成為現實。