Yesterday we looked at what this year might bring for different parts of the world. Today we’re looking at the country that will affect most parts of the world: the United States. Will President Trump forge peace in Ukraine (and win the Nobel Peace Prize)? Will he invade Greenland? We also look at the potential for an A.I. bust, a debt crisis and a blow to Trump’s tariff policies. Here’s what my colleagues think 2026 might have in store for the U.S. and the global economy.

昨天我們展望了全球不同地區的年度前景，今天將聚焦對全球多數地區影響深遠的國家——美國。川普總統能否促成烏克蘭和平（並斬獲諾貝爾和平獎）？他會入侵格陵蘭島嗎？我們還將探討人工智慧泡沫破裂、債務危機以及川普關稅政策受挫的可能性。以下是本報同事對2026年美國及全球經濟走向的分析。

Trump makes no secret of his desire for a Nobel Peace Prize. He oversaw military strikes in a half-dozen countries in 2025, but he also spent much of the year trying to build his credentials as a peacemaker: a fragile cease-fire in Gaza, a diplomatic sprint for peace in Ukraine that has yet to pan out.

川普毫不掩飾自己對諾貝爾和平獎的渴望。2025年，他主導了對六個國家的軍事打擊，但同時也花了大量時間塑造「和平締造者」形象：促成加薩達成脆弱停火協議，為推動烏克蘭和平開展密集外交斡旋，儘管後者尚未取得成效。

Then, on Saturday, he attacked Venezuela, the most stunning military intervention of his term.

然而上週六，他下令襲擊委內瑞拉，這成為其任期內最令人震驚的軍事干預行動。

Since then, he has threatened Colombia and Cuba, and warned Iran’s leaders that they could “get hit very hard.” The idea that the U.S. might acquire Greenland once seemed like a joke; after Venezuela, it would be foolish not to take him seriously.

此後，他先後威脅哥倫比亞和古巴，並警告伊朗領導人，他們「可能會遭受沉重打擊」。美國收購格陵蘭島的構想一度被視為笑談；但在委內瑞拉事件後，若再對他的言論掉以輕心，未免太過愚蠢。

But the U.S. president does face some constraints, including domestic politics. The midterm elections that determine control of the House and Senate will take place in November, and Trump is not popular: He has an approval rating of 42 percent. A recent poll found that just a third of U.S. voters approved of the strike on Venezuela.

Unpopular though the strike may have been, U.S. elections rarely turn on foreign policy. They turn on the economy, and that doesn’t bode well for Trump, either. Inflation has been pushing just over 3 percent (though the most recent numbers were lower), unemployment hit a four-year high, and Trump is already backing away from tariffs on beef and other products.

儘管此次軍事打擊不得人心，但美國選舉很少由外交政策主導，經濟才是關鍵，而這對川普而言同樣不容樂觀。通膨率一直略高於3%（儘管最新數據有所下降），失業率創下四年新高，川普已開始放棄對牛肉及其他產品加徵關稅的計劃。

During the election itself, look for efforts to ban mail-in voting, which Trump claims, without evidence, leads to fraud. He could assert more federal control over the vote counting. Trump is expert at declaring elections “rigged.” If he loses, he presses the case; if he wins, he drops the subject.

選舉期間，���計川普陣營將試圖禁止郵寄投票（他毫無證據地聲稱這種投票方式會導致舞弊），還可能主張聯邦政府加強對計票過程的控制。川普擅長宣稱選舉「被操縱」：若選舉失利，他會大肆宣揚這一說法；若勝選，則會對此絕口不提。

The A.I. boom that has been supporting the U.S. economy could turn out to be a bubble and end a remarkable run in the markets. If a 2009-style market meltdown follows, that could accelerate the sense among voters that the economy has been mismanaged.

一直支撐美國經濟的人工智慧熱潮可能演變為泡沫，進而終結市場的非凡漲勢。若隨之而來的是2009年式的市場崩盤，可能會加劇選民對經濟管理不善的認知。

The push for peace in Ukraine seems to be on shaky ground. But if a renewed effort actually stopped the fighting, who knows? Maybe he really could win the Nobel Peace Prize.

烏克蘭和平進程看似岌岌可危，但如果新一輪斡旋真能終止戰事，誰又能說准呢？或許他真的能贏得諾貝爾和平獎。

Despite the havoc wrought by Trump’s helter-skelter tariff policies, the global economy last year proved to be more resilient than many feared. But uncertainty remains the watchword.

儘管川普混亂無序的關稅政策造成了嚴重破壞，但去年全球經濟的韌性超出了許多人的預期。不過，不確定性仍是當前全球經濟的核心關鍵詞。

The surprise toppling of Venezuela’s leader and Trump’s claiming of the country’s oil reserves might be a prelude to even more American foreign interventions, which could reverberate through oil, crypto and stock markets. That’s on top of continuing conflicts and political tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, Asia and elsewhere.

委內瑞拉領導人意外下台以及川普宣稱掌控該國石油儲備，可能預示著美國將採取更多海外干預行動，這將在石油、加密貨幣和股票市場引發連鎖反應。此外，烏克蘭、中東、亞洲等地的衝突和政治緊張局勢仍在持續。

And then there’s the looming possibility that the U.S. Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs, which have hit roughly 90 countries, to be largely unconstitutional. China, for its part, is likely to continue to flood the world with cheap exports to sustain its own growth. Outside of the U.S., that could help keep inflation in check. But it will also put pressure on businesses in Europe, Southeast Asia and Latin America as they struggle to compete.

更值得關注的是，美國最高法院可能裁定川普針對約90個國家的關稅政策在很大程度上違憲。而中國方面，可能會繼續向全球大量輸出廉價商品以維持自身增長。對美國以外的國家而言，這或許有助於抑制通膨，但也將給歐洲、東南亞和拉丁美洲的企業帶來競爭壓力，使其陷入艱難的生存困境。

In the rivalry between China and the U.S., both powers will be pushing to make advances in artificial intelligence and robotics — priorities that will drive overall economic growth and soak up investment, and also significantly drive up the demand for energy and other key resources like water and critical minerals.

在中美競爭中，兩國都將爭相在人工智慧和機器人技術領域取得突破——這些優先事項將推動整體經濟增長、吸引大量投資，同時也會顯著推高對能源、水資源和關鍵礦產等核心資源的需求。

Record debt in many wealthy economies, including the U.S., hasn’t gotten much attention but it puts a lot of stress on the global financial system.

包括美國在內的許多富裕經濟體的創紀錄債務並未受到太多關注，但給全球金融體系帶來了巨大壓力。

U.S. Treasury bonds have long been the world’s safe haven, and the Federal Reserve has been relied on to provide the world with dollars in case of a short-term cash crunch. But central bankers and political leaders have started asking themselves whether the Fed, under pressure from Trump, can be counted on. Such high sovereign debt means “the system is fragile,” Richard Portes, an economist who serves on the European Systemic Risk Board, told me. We may find out this year if the world economy is operating without its usual safety net.

長期以來，美國國債一直是全球金融避風港，美聯儲也被視為在短期資金短缺時向全球提供美元流動性的可靠保障。但各國央行官員和政治領導人已開始質疑：在川普的壓力下，美聯儲是否仍值得信賴？歐洲系統性風險委員會經濟學家理查德·波特斯向我指出，如此高的主權債務意味著「整個體系極為脆弱」。今年，我們或許將見證全球經濟在沒有慣常的安全網的情況下能否正常運轉。