The United States population grew last year at one of the slowest rates in its history, according to new numbers released on Tuesday by the Census Bureau. The immigration numbers plunged by more than 50 percent from the previous year, under the aggressive anti-immigration policies of President Trump. And the birthrate continued its nearly two-decade long decline.

美國人口普查局週二發布的最新數據顯示，美國去年人口增長率跌至歷史最低水平之一。在川普總統強硬的反移民政策下，移民數較前一年暴跌超50%，而出生率也延續了近20年的下滑趨勢。

The nation’s population increased by about 1.8 million over the year, and stood at almost 342 million on July 1, the estimates say. That is a growth rate of about 0.5 percent, the lowest since 2021, when the Covid-19 pandemic caused deaths to soar and borders to close, shutting the door to international migration. That year saw the slowest growth since the nation’s founding.

數據估算顯示，過去一年美國人口新增約180萬，截至7月1日，人口規模接近3.42億，人口增長率約為0.5%。這是2021年以來的最低值——當年新冠疫情導致死亡人數激增、邊境關閉，國際移民入境管道受阻，人口增長率創下美國建國以來的歷史新低。

The new census estimates measure changes in the population from June 30, 2024, to July 1, 2025, capturing the last months of the Biden administration, when it tightened border policies, and the early months of the Trump administration.

新人口普查的估算統計週期為2024年6月30日至2025年7月1日，涵蓋拜登政府收緊邊境政策的最後數月及川普政府執政上台後的最初數月。

Over that time, net immigration added almost 1.3 million people to the U.S. population. That number is considerably lower than that of 2024, when, under President Joseph R. Biden Jr., immigration reached a record high of just over 2.7 million.

該統計週期內，凈移民為美國人口增加了約130萬，這一數字遠低於2024年——拜登政府任內的2024年，美國移民數創下歷史新高，凈移民數略超270萬。

As Mr. Trump continues his term, immigration is expected to drop even further. If current trends continue, it will fall to about 321,000 for the year ending on June 30, according to a Census Bureau news release. That would be lower than during the pandemic year, when net international migration dropped to 376,000, one of the lowest points in modern history.

隨著川普的任期推進，美國移民數預計將進一步下滑。人口普查局發布的新聞稿顯示，若當前趨勢持續，截至2026年6月30日的年度凈移民數將降至約32.1萬，這一數值甚至低於疫情最嚴重的年份——當時凈國際移民數降至37.6萬，為現代歷史上的最低值之一。

“The basic goal here was to stop people coming over the border illegally and being released, and to ramp up interior enforcement to actually remove people,” Simon Hankinson, a senior research fellow at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said of Mr. Trump’s immigration policy. “This is an indicator that much of the strategy is working.”

保守派智庫傳統基金會高級研究員西蒙·漢金森在談及川普的移民政策時表示：「這項政策的核心目標是阻止非法越境者入境並獲釋，同時強化境內執法力度，切實推進遣返。如今的移民數據表明，這一戰略大部分已見成效。」

President Trump has pledged to bring down levels of illegal immigration through a border shutdown and mass deportations. But although net immigration has declined substantially, it has still not reached the point where more people are leaving the country than arriving.

川普總統曾承諾，將通過關閉邊境、大規模驅逐出境的方式降低非法移民規模。儘管凈移民數已大幅下降，但尚未達到出境人口多於入境人口的程度。

While the country’s attention has been focused on raids and deportations, those actions accounted for relatively little of the overall decline in net immigration of about 1.5 million. The Census Bureau does not break down what caused the drop, but a New York Times analysis found that about 230,000 people were deported from the United States over the entirety of 2025.

目前美國各界的注意力都集中在移民突擊執法與驅逐遣返上，然而這些舉措對美國凈移民數約150萬的整體降幅而言，實際影響相對有限。人口普查局並未明確移民數下降的具體原因，但《紐約時報》的分析顯示，2025年全年美國驅逐出境的人數約為23萬。

That suggests that deportations are not directly responsible for most of the decline in net immigration numbers.

這一數據表明，驅逐出境並非導致凈移民數大幅下降的主要直接原因。

The border shutdown was a major part of the decline. Other factors that contributed to the drop include the increased difficulty of getting visas and foreign citizens who chose not to come to the United States, or to leave on their own.

邊境關閉是移民數銳減的核心因素，其他因素還包括簽證申請難度加大，以及外籍公民主動選擇不赴美、或自行離境。

“I was expecting that the decline would be bigger than we’re seeing here,” said William Frey, chief demographer at the left-leaning Brookings Institution. “This is still over a million people coming in.”

左翼智庫布魯金斯學會首席人口統計學家威廉·弗雷表示：「我原本以為降幅會比目前更大，但現在仍有超100萬人入境美國。」

Though several estimates have been made of the change in the immigrant population since President Trump came into office, the estimates by the Census Bureau on Tuesday are the first gold-standard set of federal figures to be made public. They attempt to account for both legal and illegal immigration, as well as deportations and voluntary departures.

儘管已有多項針對川普就職後移民人口變化的估算，但週二人口普查局發布的數據是首份對外公開的聯邦層面權威統計數據，該數據同時統計了合法與非法移民情況，以及驅逐出境和自願離境的相關數據。

The federal government’s population numbers are a measure of a nation’s demographic health, and take account of births and deaths as well as immigration, emigration and deportation. The country needs a large enough population of young workers and taxpayers to finance care for the nation’s older residents, whose numbers are swelling as the Baby Boom generation retires. Growth that is too rapid can also present problems, taxing resources and driving up the cost of housing.

聯邦政府發布的人口數據是衡量一個國家人口結構健康狀況的重要指標，涵蓋出生、死亡人口數據，以及移民、出境、驅逐出境的相關統計。隨著嬰兒潮一代步入退休，美國老年人口規模持續擴大，國家需要足夠規模的年輕勞動力和納稅人為養老保障體系提供資金支撐。但人口增長過快同樣會帶來資源壓力和住房成本上漲等問題。

A sharp drop in the birthrate also contributed to the slowdown in population growth. The birthrate has been falling since the Great Recession in 2008, and new births outpaced deaths by only about 518,000 in the latest period. That is higher than during the peak of the Covid pandemic, when deaths were soaring, but it is still extremely low by historical standards.

出生率的大幅下滑也加劇了人口增長放緩的趨勢。美國出生率自2008年大衰退後便持續走低，在本次統計週期內，出生人口僅比死亡人口多出約51.8萬。這一數值雖高於新冠疫情高峰死亡人口激增時期，但從歷史標準來看，仍處於極低水平。

“What has been carrying the United States through this decade has been immigration,” said Kenneth Johnson, a demographer at the University of New Hampshire. “My question is, what will happen to the population if we go to negative immigration?”

新罕布什爾大學人口統計學家肯尼思·強生表示：「過去十年，美國人口增長主要依靠移民拉動。我的問題是，若移民轉為凈負值，人口形勢將會怎樣？」

He noted that in the decade from 2010 to 2020, immigration made up about 40 percent of the overall population growth, while births supplied about 60 percent. But since 2020, as the birthrate has declined, immigration has taken up a larger and larger share, and now accounts for around 80 percent of overall growth.

他指出，2010至2020年的十年間，移民貢獻了美國約40%的人口增長，出生人口則貢獻了約60%；但2020年以來，隨著出生率持續下滑，移民對人口增長的貢獻率不斷攀升，如今已佔到美國整體人口增長的80%左右。

“Lowering immigration at a time when our birthrate is falling is a recipe for lower growth for our economy and weaker international competition,” said Julia Gelatt, an associate director at the Migration Policy Institute, a research center in Washington.

華盛頓移民政策研究所副主任朱莉婭·吉拉特表示：「在出生率不斷下滑的當下收緊移民政策，註定會導致美國經濟增長放緩，國際競爭力也會隨之削弱。」

While demographers expected the latest estimates to show a decline in the rate of population growth — the question was simply by how much — some of the changes seen at the state level were a surprise.

雖然人口學家預計最新數據會顯示人口增長率下降——問題只是下降多少——但州一級的一些變化卻出乎意料。。

The Midwest was the only region where every state grew in population over the year: For the first time in a decade, more people in the United States moved to the region than left it. Ohio and Michigan both gained population arriving from other states, after seeing residents leave in earlier years. South Carolina was the country’s fastest growing state, followed by Idaho, North Carolina and Texas.

中西部成為唯一一個所有州人口均實現增長的地區：十年來首次出現遷入該地區的人口多於遷出人口的情況。俄亥俄州和密西根州此前常年面臨人口外流，如今也迎來了州外遷入的人口增長。南卡羅來納州成為全美人口增長最快的州，愛達荷州、北卡羅萊納州和得克薩斯州緊隨其後。

In recent years, immigration has fueled population growth in the states, and the reduction has dragged it down. There were sharp drops in Texas, New York, Florida and California. The drop in California contributed to an outright decline in population for that state, one of five states to run in the red.

近年來，移民一直是美國各州人口增長的重要推動力，而如今移民數的減少則拖累了各州的人口增長。得克薩斯州、紐約州、佛羅里達州和加利福尼亞州的人口增長均出現大幅下滑，其中加州的人口降幅尤為顯著，成為全美五個人口出現負增長的州之一。

The Census Bureau estimates are derived from government records, like birth and death certificates and data on immigration and refugees. This year, the bureau also included new sources of information, including government data from Mexico, to get a more accurate count of the number of people leaving the country.

美國人口普查局的估算數據來源於各類政府記錄，包括出生和死亡證明、移民與難民相關數據等。今年該局還納入了新的信息來源，其中包括墨西哥政府提供的相關數據，以便更精準地統計美國的出境人口數量。

While some demographers have praised these changes and said they will contribute to a more accurate count, they have also cautioned that immigration is difficult to track precisely.

儘管一些人口統計學家對這一統計調整表示認可，認為其有助於提升數據的準確性，但同時也提醒，移民情況的精準追蹤存在難度。