BEIJING — As Xi Jinping, China’s leader, visited Central Asian countries this week, he stepped off planes to rousing performances by rows of dancers, musicians and ceremonial guards. Uzbekistan’s leader called him “the greatest statesman,” Chinese state media declared, while the leader of Turkmenistan praised his “wise leadership.” They draped him in medals.
北京——中国领导人习近平上周访问了中亚国家,当他走下飞机时,受到了一排排载歌载舞者和仪仗队的热烈欢迎。中国官方媒体宣称,乌兹别克斯坦领导人称他为“最伟大的政治家”,土库曼斯坦领导人称赞他的“卓越领导”。他们还给习近平授予勋章。
For Beijing, the pomp and fanfare that greeted Mr. Xi, as well as the effusive rhetoric of his counterparts, served to show that China is not isolated despite coming under pressure from the United States and much of the West for its human rights violations and threats to Taiwan. Such messaging by China’s propaganda apparatus carries more urgency as Mr. Xi prepares to extend his power and elevate his authority at a Communist Party congress next month.
对北京而言,习近平受到的隆重欢迎以及他国领导人对他的溢美之词表明,尽管中国因人权问题和威胁台湾而受到美国和大多数西方国家的压力,但该国并不孤立。中国宣传机构的这种宣传现在有更高的紧迫感,因为习近平准备在下个月召开的中共全国代表大会上延续自己的权力,提升自己的权威。
In the narrative presented by Beijing, Mr. Xi is the reliable global leader that other countries look to for support in a world made turbulent by American hegemony. Even Vladimir V. Putin, Russia’s autocratic leader, seemed almost deferential in his meeting with Mr. Xi on Thursday, acknowledging that China had “questions and concerns” about Russia’s war in Ukraine.
在北京展现给人们的叙事中,习近平是可靠的全球领导人,在一个因美国的霸权而动荡的世界里,其他国家向他寻求支持。就连俄罗斯独裁领导人普京上周四与他会晤时,似乎也表现得毕恭毕敬,并且承认中国对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰存在“疑问和担忧”。
普京、习近平及其他国家的领导人上周四在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕会面。
普京、习近平及其他国家的领导人上周四在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕会面。 Alexandr Demyanchuk/Sputnik, via Associated Press
But the pageantry also demonstrated China’s growing sway in Central Asia — a vast, resource-rich region of mountains and steppe once considered Russia’s domain, where great powers have long vied for influence.
但这种盛况也展示了中国在中亚日益增长的影响力,这个由山脉和大草原构成的地区幅员辽阔、资源丰富,曾被视为俄罗斯的势力范围,长期以来,各路大国一直在这里争夺影响力。
In Mr. Xi’s meetings with several Central Asian leaders, they were quoted as using phrases and political slogans coined by the Chinese Communist Party, praising him for “building a moderately prosperous society” and advancing toward China’s “great rejuvenation.” Mr. Xi was described by his counterparts as “the core” of his country, for instance, and the single person responsible for China’s successes — a narrative Beijing has intensified in recent months.
据中国官媒对习近平与几名中亚国家领导人会晤的描述,这些领导人使用了中共创造的词汇和政治口号,赞扬习近平领导中国“全面建成小康社会”,“伟大复兴进入新征程”。习近平被这些国家的领导人描述为中国的“核心”,中国取得成功全是他的功劳——这是中国政府近几个月来日益强化的叙事。
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“The words from the president of Uzbekistan are exactly like the local governors in China use when they have the chance to praise the current leader — they use that script,” said Peidong Sun, a Cornell University associate professor of contemporary Chinese social and cultural history.
“出自乌兹别克斯坦总统之口的话,与中国省级官员在他们有机会称赞现任领导人时说的完全一样,他们用的是同一个脚本,”康奈尔大学当代中国社会和文化史副教授孙沛东说。
The image China’s propaganda outlets are cultivating is partly an exaggeration. Uzbekistan’s leader, in presenting Mr. Xi with an award, had expressed respect for him “as a statesman,” according to the president’s website, and not “the greatest statesman.” Many Central Asian nations welcome Chinese investment but are wary of becoming dependent on Beijing. In countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, people share linguistic, cultural and in some cases family ties with groups in Xinjiang, a region in China’s far west. Many have been concerned about the vast crackdown there that has ensnared Central Asian people.
中国宣传机构为习近平塑造的形象不无夸张。据乌兹别克斯坦总统的网站,该国领导人向习近平授勋时表达了对他“作为政治家”的尊敬,没有称习近平是“最伟大的政治家”。许多中亚国家虽然欢迎中国的投资,但对过于依赖中国政府持谨慎态度。哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦等国的人民,与中国最西部的新疆地区少数民族有着共同的语言、文化,甚至家庭关系。不少人对中亚民族在中国遭受大规模镇压表示担忧
But China’s extensive reach in the region has reshaped the landscape in undeniable ways.
但中国在中亚地区的广泛影响已经以不可否认的方式重塑了该地区的格局。
Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a critical frontier for the country’s trade expansion, energy security, ethnic stability and military defense. China has built railroads, highways and energy pipelines and expanded educational exchanges throughout the region.
北京长期以来一直将中亚视为贸易扩张、能源安全、民族稳定和军事防御的重要前沿。中国在整个中亚地区修建铁路、公路和油气管道,扩大教育交流。
While the former Soviet republics of Central Asia are still connected to Moscow by roads, rail lines and other infrastructure, their trade is now increasingly with China. The end of the American military presence in Afghanistan last year reduced the role of the United States as a geopolitical counterweight to Moscow and Beijing. Mr. Putin’s subsequent invasion of Ukraine, followed by a series of humiliating defeats of the Russian army, may give Beijing room to gain an edge.
虽然这些曾经的苏联中亚加盟共和国仍与莫斯科有公路、铁路和其他基础设施的联系,但它们现在与中国的贸易越来越多。美国去年从阿富汗撤军,削弱了自己在地缘政治上抗衡莫斯科和北京的作用。普京后来入侵乌克兰,以及俄罗斯军队最近在乌克兰遭受接二连三的耻辱性失败,也许会给中国政府在中亚地区占据优势提供空间。
上周五,北京一家餐馆的大屏幕上有关习近平出访的新闻报道。
上周五,北京一家餐馆的大屏幕上有关习近平出访的新闻报道。 Tingshu Wang/Reuters
One complication for Mr. Xi’s ambitions in the region is his alignment and personal bond with Mr. Putin, the Russian leader whose invasion of Ukraine drew unease in the region. Mr. Xi has often described Mr. Putin as his “best friend,” and in February he hailed a friendship that had “no limits.” On Thursday, Mr. Xi appeared to distance himself, at least in public, saying nothing about Moscow’s position on Ukraine and offering reassurances to Central Asian leaders that China would support their sovereignty.
习近平在中亚地区的野心被一个因素复杂化,那就是他与俄罗斯领导人普京的结盟和个人关系,普京对乌克兰的入侵已在中亚地区引起了不安。习近平经常称普京是自己“最好的朋友”,今年2月他曾颂扬这种友谊“没有止境”。上周四,习近平看来想拉开与普京的距离,至少在公开场合,习近平只字未提俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争,并且还向中亚领导人保证,中国会维护他们的主权。
The region’s concerns about Russian expansionism were most evident when President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan, an ally of Mr. Putin’s, said at a forum in June in St. Petersburg, Russia, that he would not recognize the “quasi states” that Russia has set up in occupied Ukrainian territory. The pushback against the Kremlin was striking because in January, Mr. Putin sent troops into Kazakhstan at Mr. Tokayev’s request to quell an uprising and stabilize his government.
中亚地区担忧俄罗斯扩张主义最为明显的表现是普京的盟友、哈萨克斯坦总统托卡耶夫今年6月在俄罗斯圣彼得堡一个论坛上的发言,他说,他不会承认俄罗斯在被其占领的乌克兰领土上设立“准国家”。这种反对克里姆林宫的说法之所以引人注目,是因为今年1月,普京曾应托卡耶夫的请求,派兵进入哈萨克斯坦平息当地的叛乱,稳定了他的政府。
“These are resource-rich countries, relatively sparsely populated, and if Putin’s grip on them weakens, China has been clever and opportunistic,” said Harry Broadman, a former American trade official and a World Bank specialist in Central Asia and China.
“这些是资源丰富的国家,人口相对稀少,如果普京对它们的控制减弱,中国就会变得聪明,见机行事,”前美国贸易官员、曾经担任世界银行中亚和中国问题专家的哈利·布罗德曼说。
今年年初哈萨克斯坦发生叛乱后,普京曾应托卡耶夫总统的请求派兵进入该国,帮助后者稳定了统治。
今年年初哈萨克斯坦发生叛乱后,普京曾应托卡耶夫总统的���求派兵进入该国,帮助后者稳定了统治。 Pavel Mikheyev/Reuters
The region is familiar with walking a tightrope between powers. The Great Game, a term popularized by Rudyard Kipling, was the 19th-century competition between Russia and Britain for control over Central Asia. Russia’s influence peaked in 1979, with the Soviet miliary occupation of Afghanistan, then waned with the breakup of the Soviet Union 12 years later.
在大国之间走钢丝是中亚地区熟悉的事情。因拉迪亚德·吉卜林而流行起来的“大博弈”这个词,描述的就是俄罗斯和英国在19世纪争夺中亚控制权的竞赛。俄罗斯对中亚影响力在1979年达到了顶峰,那年,苏联军队占领了阿富汗,12年后,随着苏联的解体,这种影响力减弱了。
In what has become a new version of the Great Game, China, with nine times the population of Russia and 10 times as large an economy, has also long been viewed with wariness in Central Asia. Countries there have responded over the years with stringent limits on immigration from China and other measures. They have also sought investment from the United States in projects like a factory that builds locomotives in the capital of Kazakhstan.
中国的人口是俄罗斯的九倍,经济规模是俄罗斯的十倍,在新版本的“大博弈”中,中亚地区长期以来也一直对中国持谨慎态度。多年来,中亚国家一直严格限制来自中国的移民,并采取了其他一些措施。这些国家还从美国寻求投资项目,例如在哈萨克斯坦首都建设火车机车制造厂
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But Mr. Xi accelerated China’s efforts to expand its influence in Central Asia, starting in 2013 the so-called Belt and Road Initiative, a program of railway, port and highways along the land and maritime Silk Roads that linked China to Europe and the Mideast for centuries.
但习近平加快了中国在中亚地区扩大影响力的努力,于 2013年开启了所谓的“一带一路”倡议,沿着曾将中国与欧洲和中东连接了几个世纪的陆上和海上丝绸之路,修建铁路、港口和公路。
“China’s impact and influence in Central Asia has been increasing for a decade or so,” said Chen Dingding, a professor of international relations at Jinan University in Guangzhou.
“十年来,中国在中亚的冲击和影响力一直在增加,”广州暨南大学国际关系教授陈定定说。
William C. Kirby, a Harvard professor of Chinese history, said that Chinese influence in Central Asia may now be reaching levels not seen since the peak of the ancient Silk Road during the Tang dynasty, which ruled China from 618 to 907.
哈佛大学中国历史教授柯伟林(William C. Kirby)表示,中国在中亚的影响力现在可能达到了古代丝绸之路全盛时期的唐朝之后未曾见过的水平,唐朝统治中国的时间是公元618年至907年。
Russia has been the main threat to the independence of Central Asian republics since Peter the Great, the czar in the early eighteenth century. China seems less threatening right now by comparison.
自18世纪初的沙皇彼得大帝开始,俄罗斯一直是中亚共和国独立的主要威胁。相比之下,中国现在似乎不构成这种威胁。
“The greatest danger for them is to become once again drawn too tightly to Moscow’s orbit,” Mr. Kirby said.
“对他们来说,最大的危险是被再次拉入和莫斯科更近的轨道,”柯伟林说。
China’s courtship of Central Asia is aimed in part at drumming up support on the global stage for its interests. In meetings with Mr. Xi on Thursday in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, ahead of a Chinese-led security conference on Friday, one leader after another pledged support for China’s territorial claim to Taiwan, a self-ruled island democracy.
中国向中亚国家示好,一定程度上是为了在全球舞台上为其自身利益争取支持。上周五由中国主导的一个区域安全会议召开之前,中亚国家领导人周四在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕与习近平见面时,一个接一个地承诺支持中国对民主自治岛屿台湾的领土主张。
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But there appeared to be some limits to Beijing’s sway. Mr. Xi made little headway on an issue at the heart of the security conference on Friday: support for his hard line policies in Xinjiang. No Central Asian leaders joined China in publicly denouncing a United Nations report that found China may have committed crimes against humanity in Xinjiang, though Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan referred generally to backing China’s stance on the region.
但北京的影响力似乎有限。习近平在上周五的安全会议核心议题——即争取各国支持他在新疆的强硬政策上几乎没有取得进展。没有一名中亚国家领导人与中国一起公开谴责联合国的人权报告,该报告称中国可能在新疆犯下了危害人类罪,尽管吉尔吉斯斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦泛泛地提到支持中国在该地区的立场。
“Central Asian countries don’t want to deal with this, they would really like to stay out of this,” said Niva Yau, a senior researcher at the OSCE Academy, a research center and graduate school in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. In that respect, she said, “China failed a bit on this trip.”
“中亚国家不想涉及这个问题,他们真的不想卷进去,”吉尔吉斯斯坦比什凯克的欧洲安全与合作组织学院高级研究员邱芷恩(Niva Yau)说。她说,从这方面来看,“中国的这次访问有点失败。”
上周四,习近平在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕接受乌兹别克斯坦总统米尔济约耶夫授予的“最高友谊”勋章。
上周四,习近平在乌兹别克斯坦撒马尔罕接受乌兹别克斯坦总统米尔济约耶夫授予的“最高友谊”勋章。 /EPA, via Shutterstock