Five years ago, the United States played a pivotal role in Myanmar’s general election. Washington assisted with voter education programs, supporting civil society in the name of strengthening global democracy and countering China’s influence in the region.

五年前，美國在緬甸大選中發揮了關鍵作用。華盛頓通過選民教育項目提供援助，以加強全球民主、對抗中國在該地區影響力的名義，支持公民社會。

It was one of the few truly contested elections in Myanmar, which has largely been ruled by its military since independence from Britain in 1948. Voters delivered a decisive win for the civilian leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, but within months the generals again seized power, and Washington downgraded diplomatic ties with the nation.

這是緬甸少數幾次真正存在競爭的大選之一。自1948年脫離英國獨立以來，該國大部分時間由軍方統治。選民為文職領袖翁山蘇姬帶來了決定性勝利，但幾個月後，將軍們再次奪權，美國隨之降低了與該國的外交關係。

Now election season has returned in Myanmar, as voters start casting ballots on Sunday. The polls, which will not include many politicians opposed to the junta and will only be held in areas controlled by the military, have been called a sham by the United Nations. But they have a surprising backer — China, a one party state.

如今，緬甸又進入了選舉季，選民從週日起開始投票。此次選舉不會包括許多反對軍政府的政客，且僅在軍方控制的地區舉行，已被聯合國稱為一場鬧劇。但它有一個令人意外的支持者——一黨制國家中國。

For Beijing, Myanmar is a crucial link to the Indian Ocean. China has committed funds worth billions of dollars for infrastructure projects in its smaller neighbor, including highways and a deep seaport. But the coup in 2021 and an ensuing civil war that has wracked Myanmar have threatened those plans.

對北京而言，緬甸是通往印度洋的關鍵環節。中國已向這個毗鄰的小國承諾數十億美元資金，用於基礎設施項目，包括高速公路和一個深水港。但2021年的政變以及隨之而來的內戰嚴重威脅了這些計劃，給緬甸帶來了巨大破壞。

In a remarkable statement last year, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on Myanmar to achieve domestic peace with an end to the fighting and “national governance based on the will of the people.”

去年，中國外交部長王毅發表了一份引人注目的聲明，呼籲緬甸停止戰鬥，實現國內和平，並「根據人民意願治理國家」。

China has promised to provide technological assistance and funding so that the junta can compile voter lists. The irony of a one-party state promoting elections is not lost on observers. Beijing views the poll as the best way to establish a semi-legitimate government in Myanmar that some countries may agree to grit their teeth and negotiate with. China, along with Belarus and Russia, are some of the handful of countries sending election observers.

中國承諾提供技術援助和資金，幫助軍政府編製選民名單。一黨制國家推動選舉的諷刺意味並沒有逃過觀察者的眼睛。北京視此次選舉為在緬甸建立一個半合法政府的最佳途徑，這樣一來，一些國家或許會硬著頭皮與之談判。中國和白俄羅斯、俄羅斯等少數幾個國家將派遣選舉觀察員。

“It’s a little bit of a joke to think that the Chinese are trying to shepherd election observation missions,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center in Washington. “But that just attests to the Chinese effort to window-dress this election, to make it look as pretty and as legitimate as it can.”

「想到中國人試圖領導一個選舉觀察團，有點像個笑話，」華盛頓史汀生中心中國項目主任孫韻說。「但這恰恰證明了中國努力為這場選舉裝點門面，讓它看起來盡可能漂亮和合法。」

Beijing has supplied arms to both the warring junta and the rebel armies to balance its interests. It has also used its leverage over some armed groups to pressure them to hand back territory to the military. Now its hope is that the election will lead to a semblance of stability that would allow it to revive its stalled deep-sea port and oil and gas pipelines on Myanmar’s coast. These projects were meant to reduce China’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca, which Beijing fears the United States could someday blockade.

北京向交戰的軍政府和叛軍雙方提供武器，以平衡自身利益。它還利用對某些武裝團體的影響力，迫使他們將領土交還軍方。現在，中國希望選舉能帶來某種表面的穩定，從而重啟陷入停滯的深水港以及緬甸海岸的油氣管道項目。這些項目旨在減少中國對馬六甲海峽的依賴，北京擔心美國有朝一日可能會封鎖該海峽。

Ko Ko Gyi, the chairman of the People’s Party in Myanmar, said Chinese officials told him in Beijing last year that “Myanmar’s peace and stability directly affect China’s interests.” His political party was one of many in Myanmar invited to China for all-expenses-paid “study tours” in recent years.

緬甸人民黨主席哥哥基表示，中國官員去年在北京告訴他，「緬甸的和平與穩定直接影響中國的利益。」他的政黨是近年來眾多受邀前往中國的緬甸政黨之一，這些「考察游」的費用全部由中國承擔。

Mr. Ko Ko Gyi, once one of Myanmar’s most prominent pro-democracy activists, said that even though China is clearly pursuing its own interests, it is “close, influential and willing to engage, while the U.S. remains on the fence.”

哥哥基曾是緬甸最著名的民主派活動人士之一，他說，儘管中國顯然在追求自身利益，但它「近在咫尺、影響力大且願意接觸，而美國則保持觀望態度」。

“Washington talks about values, but Beijing brings leverage,” he said. “That is why Myanmar keeps leaning toward China, because America offers rhetoric, not commitment.”

「華盛頓談的是價值觀，但北京帶來的是影響力，」他說。「這就是緬甸不斷向中國傾斜的原因，因為美國提供的只是空談，而不是承諾。」

But ballots will only be cast in junta-controlled areas, or less than half of the country. Some rebel groups as well as the shadow National Unity Government, a pro-democracy movement, have urged a boycott of the election.

但投票僅在軍政府控制的地區舉行，範圍不到全國一半國土。有些叛亂團體以及主張民主的影子政府「民族團結政府」已呼籲抵制此次選舉。

“It is absolutely impossible for Myanmar to become stable or for any meaningful political space to emerge simply by holding an election, as China appears to expect,” said Nay Phone Latt, a spokesman for the shadow government. “Even if a so-called civilian government were to emerge through such an election, it would still be the same military coup leaders in civilian clothes who would continue to rule.”

「僅僅通過舉行選舉——正如中國似乎所期待的那樣——就讓緬甸實現穩定或出現任何有意義的政治空間，是絕對不可能的，」民族團結政府發言人奈蓬拉特表示。「即使通過這種選舉產生一個所謂的文官政府，掌權的也還是同一批軍事政變領導人，只是換上了便裝而已。」

Members of the pro-military party that is expected to win the elections, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, have traveled to China five times since 2021 for meetings with Communist Party officials.

預計將贏得選舉的親軍方政黨——聯邦鞏固與發展黨——自2021年以來已五次前往中國，與共產黨官員會晤。

“They explained how they systematically built that one-party system, enabling them to govern the country without rivals,” said U Thaung Shwe, the director general of the Myanmar party. “They also discussed how to achieve desired outcomes in elections and how to manage the process to ensure a favorable result.

「他們解釋了如何系統地建立一黨制，從而能夠在沒有對手的情況下治理國家，」該黨總幹事吳當瑞說。「他們還討論了如何在選舉中實現預期結果，以及如何管理進程以確保有利結局。」

“They shared ideas on how a democratic system can still function under centralized control.”

「他們分享了在集中控制下民主制度仍能運作的思路。」

While Myanmar’s military will still control the levers of power, the elections could lead to a return to a nominally civilian government or a shake-up among the military elites. It is uncertain what role the junta chief, Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, will play after the elections.

雖然緬甸軍方仍將掌控權力槓桿，但此次選舉可能導致名義上的文官政府回歸，或動搖軍方權貴階層。軍政府首腦敏昂萊大將在選舉後的角色尚不確定。

“Even if those who form the next government are the same individuals from the current military government, the system they operate in will change,” said Thet Thet Khine, founder of the People’s Pioneer Party, which comprises former military officials and businesspeople. “That means there will be a shift toward a more democratic path.”

「即使組成下屆政府的仍是當前軍政府中的同一批人，他們運作的體制也將發生變化，」由前軍方官員和商人組成的民眾先鋒黨創始人德德凱表示。「這意味著將向更民主的道路邁進。」

China, she said, is helping Myanmar “move one step closer toward the democracy that our people desire.”

她說，中國正在幫助緬甸「進一步走向我們人民渴望的民主」。

Peng Nian, director of the Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies, compared this election to the 2010 poll, which was seen as a facade to cement military rule but eventually paved the way for the West to engage with U Thein Sein, a former general who enacted reforms.

香港亞洲研究研究中心主任彭念將此次選舉比作2010年那次，後者被視為鞏固軍方統治的幌子，但最終為西方與前將軍吳登盛的接觸鋪平了道路，後者實施了改革。

“Regardless of what the West thinks, it is at least a democratization process,” Mr. Peng said.

「不管西方怎麼想，這至少是一個民主化進程，」彭念說。

Ultimately, the veneer of legitimacy that China provides in this election could help the Myanmar junta entrench its power and further the military’s idea of a so-called “disciplined democracy.”

最終，中國為此次選舉提供的合法性外衣，可能幫助緬甸軍政府鞏固權力，並進一步推進軍方所謂的「有紀律的民主」理念。

“The last thing China wants is for there to be a full-scale revolution that advances systemic change and pushes the Myanmar military out,” said Jason Tower, the former country director for Myanmar at the United States Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan research organization.

「中國最不希望看到的是發生一場全面革命，推動制度性變革並將緬甸軍方趕下台，」無黨派研究機構美國和平研究所前緬甸國家主任傑森·陶爾說。

But despite the apparent bonhomie, the Myanmar generals remain suspicious of China. They dislike China’s role in funding the rebel armies in Myanmar’s borderlands and are wary of overreliance on its giant neighbor. The country that General Min Aung Hlaing has visited the most is not China but Russia.

但儘管表面上關係融洽，緬甸的將軍們仍對中國保持懷疑。他們不滿中國為緬甸邊境叛軍提供資金，且警惕過度依賴這個龐大的鄰國。敏昂萊出訪最多的國家不是中國，而是俄羅斯。

China has also signaled its displeasure with the general, given the instability on the border, the junta’s failure to shut down the scam centers that have ensnared thousands of Chinese victims, and an attack on the Chinese Consulate in Mandalay last year.

中國也對這位將軍表示不滿，原因包括邊境不穩定、軍政府未能關閉那些誘騙數千中國受害者的詐騙中心，以及去年對中國駐曼德勒領事館的襲擊。

Analysts say these factors provide an opening for the West to engage with Myanmar, where many want to balance relations between the world’s two major superpowers.

分析人士表示，這些因素為西方與緬甸接觸提供了機會，許多緬甸人希望在大國之間保持平衡關係。

“The international community needs to do something differently in Myanmar,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow for Southeast Asian security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think tank. “But if they keep waiting and doing nothing, then the country is going to continue to fragment and be pulled closer and closer into China’s orbit.”