One year and a seemingly infinite number of news cycles ago, Donald J. Trump returned to Washington.

一年前，也是在一系列似乎無窮無盡的新聞週期開始之前，唐納德·川普重返華盛頓。

The city was drunk with expectation and dread that first weekend leading into his inauguration. Trump supporters palled around town in pedicabs blaring “Y.M.C.A.” Plutocrats partied on yachts in the Potomac. Tech billionaires sat cheek to jowl in the Capitol Rotunda, licking their lips. Democrats looked in a daze.

在就職典禮前的最後一個週末，這座城市沉醉於期待與恐懼之中。川普的支持者乘坐人力三輪車在街上閑逛，高聲播放著《YMCA》。富豪們在波托馬克河的遊艇上狂歡。科技億萬富翁肩並肩擠在國會圓形大廳裡，舔著嘴唇。民主黨人則一臉茫然。

The president who had been left for political dead was regenerated, bigger and bolder than ever, back inside the building that a mob of his supporters attacked four years earlier. The world tried to wrap its head around the thought — the reality — of a second Trump presidency. What would it be like this time?

這位曾被政治上判了死刑的總統獲得重生，比以往任何時候都更招搖、強勢，重返四年前被支持他的暴徒襲擊的那座大樓。全世界都在努力消化這個想法——這個現實：川普的第二任總統任期。這一次會是什麼樣子？

The official photograph of Mr. Trump printed inside the programs that day was a startling image that thrilled some and terrified others. Bathed in eerie light from below, high-powered strobes reflected in his eyes, he glared out from the portrait and into the future he was about to conjure for us all.

當天節目單中印著的川普官方照片是一幅令人震驚的圖像，讓一些人興奮，讓一些人恐懼。詭異的腳光投射在臉上，高功率閃光燈反射在他的眼中，肖像中他瞪大眼睛，凝視著他即將為我們所有人召喚的未來。

Ordinarily, by the one-year point in a presidency, it is possible to connect certain dots so that a coherent picture begins to come into focus, showing us where a president is taking the country.

通常，在總統任期滿一年時，人們已經能夠串聯起某些點，形成一個連貫的畫面，向我們展示總統正把國家帶向何方。

In this case, there is conspicuousness — Mr. Trump seems to be everywhere, in everything — but there is little consistency or predictability.

但這一次卻顯而易見地缺乏連貫性——川普似乎無處不在、無所不包——卻幾乎沒有一致性或可預測性。

This has been the great truth of Trump II so far, and anyone who has spent time in Washington this past year has experienced it in some way big or small. European leaders. Republican allies. Military commanders. Media executives. Financiers. Oilmen. Journalists trying to make sense of the daily machinations.

這就是川普二世迄今為止的最大真相，任何過去一年在華盛頓待過的人都或多或少親身體驗到了這一點。歐洲領導人。共和黨盟友。軍方將領。媒體高管。金融家。石油大亨。試圖解讀每日運作的記者們。

None of these people have any idea what tomorrow holds. It doesn’t seem knowable.

這些人都不知道明天會發生什麼。似乎根本無法預知。

At a business forum in Qatar last month, Donald Trump Jr. said that “what’s good about my father, and what’s unique about my father, is you don’t know what he’s going to do.”

上個月在卡達的一個商業論壇上，小唐納德·川普說：「我父親的優點，以及他獨特之處在於，你不知道他接下來會做什麼。」

The son called the father “the most unpredictable person, probably in the history of politics.” He wouldn’t get any argument there from anyone in Washington.

他稱自己的父親是「政治史上最不可預測的人」。華盛頓沒人會對此提出異議。

The president’s supporters sent him back to this place to disrupt. They see his ability to keep everyone guessing as one of his supreme strengths, a strategy unto itself.

總統的支持者們把他送回這裡，就是為了顛覆。他讓所有人猜不透的能力在他們眼裡就是無與倫比的優勢，一種獨特的策略。

But one year since his return to power, this question has only deepened: Is there a strategy behind all this terrific unpredictability — or does it reflect the absence of one?

但自他重掌權力一年以來，這個問題進一步加深了：所有這些驚人的不可預測性背後，是否有什麼深謀遠慮？還是說這根本只是反映了戰略的缺失？

Tariffs come on. Tariffs come off. Tariffs come on again, but only partially. Tariffs come off again.

關稅上馬。關稅取消。關稅再次上馬，但只是部分。關稅又取消。

The Trump administration spent the last six months trying to hash out a trade deal with the European Union. That deal blew up spectacularly this weekend after Mr. Trump suddenly decided to threaten eight European nations with new tariffs until they agree to sell Greenland to the United States.

川普政府過去六個月一直在努力與歐盟敲定貿易協議。這個協議在本週末轟然崩塌，因為川普突然決定向八個歐洲國家發出新的關稅威脅，除非它們同意將格陵蘭島賣給美國。

The very same European heads of state now being threatened by Mr. Trump had spent the year making pilgrimages to Washington, separately and then all together in August, to endear themselves to him. Oftentimes, it seemed to work.

這些被川普威脅的歐洲國家元首一整年裡都在朝聖般前往華盛頓——先是單獨前往，然後在8月還組團訪美——竭力討好這位總統。很多時候，似乎還真奏效了。

At that August confab, Mr. Trump talked about how much he admired everyone gathered at his table. He said that Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain was “my friend.” President Emmanuel Macron of France had “been with me from the beginning.” The NATO secretary general? “Doing a fantastic job.”

在8月那次會晤中，川普談到他多麼欽佩桌邊所有人。他說英國首相斯塔默是「我的朋友」。法國總統馬克宏「從一開始就和我在一起」。北約秘書長？「幹得棒極了。」

Maybe, on that day, Mr. Trump really did feel that way. But so what? These days, the Europeans are conducting military exercises in Greenland amid Mr. Trump’s increasingly menacing designs on the icy land mass in the North Atlantic.

也許在那一天，川普真的這麼覺得。但那又怎樣？如今，歐洲人在格陵蘭島進行軍事演習，以應對川普對北大西洋這片冰封之地日益咄咄逼人的企圖。

The president spent half the year bullying Canada until Canada’s new prime minister went to the White House. “I love Canada,” Mr. Trump claimed at that meeting. Asked then what “concession” he wanted from Canada, he said only “friendship.” But how can the Canadians be sure?

總統花了半年時間霸凌加拿大，直到該國新任總理前往白宮。「我愛加拿大，」川普在那次會晤中宣稱。當被問及他想從加拿大得到什麼「讓步」時，他只說「友誼」。但加拿大人如何能確信？

How can anyone be sure of anything?

任何人又如何能確信任何事？

One morning last week, Mr. Trump announced that he was close to invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807 to send troops into Minnesota to put down the protests that had broken out after an ICE agent shot and killed a woman there.

上週的一個早晨，川普宣布他即將援引1807年《叛亂法》派部隊進入明尼蘇達州，鎮壓在ICE特工槍殺一名女子後爆發的抗議。

The very next morning, this extraordinary development was off. As he traipsed across the South Lawn of the White House to make his way down to Palm Beach, Fla., for the weekend, Mr. Trump casually declared that there was no need for the Insurrection Act. Preparing for the possibility that Mr. Trump might change his mind again, the Pentagon told 1,500 active-duty troops to ready for a possible deployment to Minnesota.

第二天早上，這一驚人的決定就取消了。當他穿過白宮南草坪前往佛羅里達棕櫚灘度週末時，川普漫不經心地說無需動用《叛亂法》。五角大廈為川普可能再次改變主意做好準備，已指示1500名現役士兵做好可能部署到明尼蘇達的準備。

One of the most illuminating things Mr. Trump said this year was that it was important for the United States to actually own Greenland “because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success.” Psychologically important for him, or for the United States, he was asked? “Psychologically important for me,” he answered.

川普今年說過的最發人深省的話之一是，美國在實質上擁有格陵蘭島「非常重要，因為我覺得這在心理上是成功的要件」。有人問在心理上對他重要，還是對美國重要？「在心理上對我重要，」他回答。

His psychology is his doctrine. Foreign policy, the economy, domestic politics — all plans and policies in Washington now come filtered through the overmastering prism of this “unpredictable” psyche.

他的心理就是他的理念。外交政策、經濟、國內政治——華盛頓如今所有計劃與政策，都要經過這個「不可預測」、壓倒一切的心理稜鏡來過濾。

He is the capo dei capi of chaos.

他是混沌中的「黑幫老大」。

So many events this year have been so absurd, so abrupt, or so operatic that they have contributed to a general atmosphere of destabilization — of entropy and caprice and expediency — in the capital.

今年這麼多事件如此荒謬、如此突兀、如此戲劇化，以至於它們在首都製造了一種充滿混亂、任性和投機取巧的動盪氣氛。

Remember Elon Musk? He was such a central character for the first half of the year, lording over cabinet meetings, giving news conferences while standing beside the Resolute Desk, until one day his time in Washington was over.

還記得伊隆·馬斯克嗎？他在上半年是如此核心的人物，主宰內閣會議，站在總統的「堅毅桌」旁開新聞發布會，直到有一天他在華盛頓的生活戛然而止。

He showed up to the West Wing for his last day of work with a black eye (which he blamed on his toddler). Mr. Trump gave him an oversize novelty key to the White House and sent him on his way. A few days later, the two men got into a nasty fight in which the mogul accused the president of covering up Jeffrey Epstein’s crimes and the president threatened to use the power of the government to destroy the mogul.

在西翼的最後一天，他的眼角有塊烏青（他聲稱是自己的那個尚在幼年的孩子乾的）。川普給了他一把超大號的白宮紀念鑰匙，把他送走。幾天後，兩人爆發激烈爭吵，億萬富翁指責總統掩蓋傑弗里·愛潑斯坦的罪行，總統則威脅動用政府力量摧毀這位富豪。

What was the public to make of any of this? The two are said to be friends again.

公眾該如何理解這一切？據說兩人現在又成了朋友。

One morning in October, everybody in Washington woke up and, poof, the East Wing was gone. The president had insisted his plans for a White House ballroom would pay “total respect to the existing building.” Well, the building doesn’t exist anymore. All that’s left of the East Wing is a pile of mud that’s been dumped in the middle of a public golf course in the Potomac. Cranes currently encircle the White House, and the plans for the ballroom keep changing.

10月的一個早晨，華盛頓人醒來發現，東翼沒了。總統曾堅持他的白宮舞廳計劃會「完全尊重現有建築」。嗯，那棟建築現在不存在了。東翼已經只剩下傾倒在波托馬克河畔一個公共高爾夫球場中央的一堆泥土。白宮周圍遍布起重機，舞廳計劃還在不斷變化。

The president seized control of the Kennedy Center and put a crew of right-wing political operatives in charge of it. Ticket sales plummeted. He decided to host the Kennedy Center Honors himself. Ratings plummeted. His name was put on the front of the building. The Washington National Opera departed. He has declared the institution saved.

總統接管了甘迺迪中心，讓一群右翼政治操盤手掌管。票房暴跌。他決定親自主持甘迺迪中心榮譽獎頒獎禮。收視率暴跌。他的名字被刻在大樓正面。華盛頓國家歌劇院離開了。他宣稱自己已經拯救了這個機構。

Presidential mood swings play themselves out in televised cabinet meetings that can go from dark and stormy to sunny and funny over the course of an hour. The morning after he single-handedly provoked this weekend’s diplomatic uproar, as European leaders hurriedly convened an emergency meeting in Brussels, Mr. Trump directed his motorcade to … a furniture store in Palm Beach.

總統的情緒波動在電視轉播的內閣會議中上演，一個小時內能從陰沉暴風雨轉為陽光歡快。在他以一己之力引發本週末外交風暴後，歐洲領導人匆忙在布魯塞爾召開緊急會議，而川普卻指示車隊前往……棕櫚灘的一家傢具店。

White House officials did not respond to an inquiry asking what sort of furniture he was looking to buy.

白宮官員對他想買什麼傢具的提問未作回應。

On balance, there has been no balance. Only imbalance. Sometimes, a measure of imbalance is what’s needed to shake up sclerotic institutions, relationships, old ways of thinking — and that is what Mr. Trump’s supporters sent him back here to do one year ago to the day.

總體而言，沒有平衡。只有失衡。有時，一定程度的失衡正是撼動僵化機構、關係、舊思維所需——而這也是為什麼川普的支持者一年前把他送回這裡。

But a lot of what’s happened since last January has left much of Washington and the world with what seems like a strange new variety of American vertigo.

但自去年1月以來，發生的諸多事件讓華盛頓和世界大部分地區陷入了一種奇怪的新型美式眩暈。