Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain will leave on Tuesday for a high-stakes visit to China, seeking new trade and investment from the world’s second-largest economy as relations between the United States and its Western allies grow increasingly volatile.

英國首相斯塔默將於週二啟程，對中國進行一次成敗攸關的訪問。在美國與其西方盟友關係日益動盪之際，他希望從世界第二大經濟體尋求新的貿易與投資機會。

Mr. Starmer took office 18 months ago with a promise to improve relations with China, and British officials hope that his three-day, finance-focused mission to Beijing and Shanghai will result in deals that can spur Britain’s lagging economy — and his Labour Party’s dismal standing — into recovery.

斯塔默於18個月前上任時曾承諾改善對華關係。英國官員希望，他此次為期三天、以金融議題為核心的北京與上海之行能夠促成一系列協議，從而提振英國低迷的經濟，並幫助其所在的工黨扭轉支持率的頹勢。

But Mr. Starmer, the first British prime minister to visit China since 2018, will have to navigate an increasingly fraught space between two global superpowers.

然而，作為自2018年以來首位訪華的英國首相，斯塔默必須在兩個全球超級大國之間日益緊張的關係中謹慎周旋。

His trip comes just days after President Trump threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on Canada if the country’s prime minister, Mark Carney, made a trade deal with China. There is no indication that Canada and China are discussing a broad economic agreement, but Mr. Carney agreed to lower tariffs on some Chinese electric vehicles on a visit this month with Xi Jinping, China’s top leader.

此次訪問前不久，川普總統威脅，如果加拿大總理卡尼與中國達成貿易協議，將對加拿大徵收100%的關稅。儘管目前沒有跡象表明加拿大與中國正在討論一項廣泛的經濟協議，但卡尼在本月訪華與中國最高領導人習近平會晤時，同意降低部分中國電動車的關稅。

“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Mr. Trump wrote on social media, calling Mr. Carney ”governor” in a reference to his repeated threats to annex Canada and make it the 51st U.S. state.

「如果卡尼州長認為他可以把加拿大變成中國向美國輸送商品和產品的『中轉港』，那他就大錯特錯了，」川普在社群媒體上寫道。他稱卡尼為「州長」，這是他多次威脅吞併加拿大、將其變為美國第51個州的說法之一。

For China’s leadership, Mr. Starmer’s visit gives Beijing an opportunity to court another staunch U.S. ally alienated by the Trump administration. Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Britain’s most senior finance official, and Peter Kyle, the country’s trade secretary, are accompanying Mr. Starmer on his trip, along with several of the country’s top financial services CEOs.

對中國領導層而言，斯塔默的北京之行提供了一個機會，可以拉攏另一個因川普政府政策而疏遠美國的堅定盟友。英國最高財政官員、財政大臣蕾切爾·裡夫斯，以及貿易大臣彼得·凱爾將陪同斯塔默訪華，同行的還有多位英國頂級金融服務公司的首席執行官。

When Theresa May, the last British prime minister to visit China, went there in 2018, she vowed to cement what her predecessors had dubbed a “golden era” of Chinese-British relations.

2018年，上一位訪華的英國首相特雷莎·梅前往中國時，曾誓言鞏固其前任所稱的中英關係「黃金時代」。

For Mr. Starmer, however, meeting with Mr. Xi is risky. The political consensus in much of Britain has turned decidedly against China, with growing concerns over national security and human rights, and deep anger about the dumping of cheap Chinese products on global markets.

但對斯塔默而言，與習近平會面充滿風險。英國社會在很大程度上已形成明顯的反對中國的政治共識，國家安全、人權問題日益受到關注，同時廉價中國商品向全球市場傾銷的現象也引發強烈憤怒。

Mr. Starmer suffered blowback when prosecutors dropped a case last September against two British nationals accused of spying for China, and when his government last week approved a controversial Chinese mega-embassy in central London.

去年9月，檢方撤銷了針對兩名被控為中國從事間諜活動的英國公民的案件；上週，斯塔默政府批准中方在倫敦市中心建設備受爭議的超大規模使館。這些都令斯塔默遭遇政治反彈。

Critics, including the Trump administration, say the embassy will allow China to conduct widespread spying. Mr. Starmer’s visit was partly contingent on British approval of the embassy, according to Chinese analysts and Chinese state media.

包括川普政府在內的批評者稱，這座使館將使中國能夠開展大規模間諜活動。根據中國問題分析人士和中國官媒的說法，斯塔默此行在一定程度上以英國批准該使館為前提。

Those tensions between economic and national security interests are at the heart of Mr. Starmer’s trip.

經濟利益與國家安全利益之間的那些緊張關係正是斯塔默此行的核心背景。

“We labor under these misapprehensions that we’re going to be able to get a lot of money quick, that it’s going to enable the government to tell a good news story about the economy, which they desperately need,” said Luke de Pulford, the executive director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, an international group of lawmakers that pushes for a more critical view of the Chinese government.

對華政策跨國議會聯盟是一個推動對中國政府採取更強硬立場的國際議員組織，它的執行董事裴倫德(Luke de Pulford)指出，「我們一直被一種誤解所左右，認為我們能迅速獲得大量資金，這將讓政府能夠講出一個他們迫切需要的經濟利好故事。」

“You can understand the political imperatives,” he said, “but the longer-term resilience, health, national security of the U.K. is at stake.”

「你可以理解其中的政治必要性，」他說。「但英國更長遠的韌性、健康以及國家安全正處在危險之中。」

Mr. Starmer is not the only leader who has taken the risk of triggering Mr. Trump’s ire by trekking to Beijing.

斯塔默並非唯一一位冒著激怒川普風險而前往北京的領導人。

António Costa, the president of the European Council, and Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, met with Mr. Xi in July at the Great Hall of the People. President Emmanuel Macron of France was welcomed in China last month with a red carpet and an honor guard. Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany is expected to go in February.

歐盟理事會主席安東尼奧·科斯塔和歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩去年7月曾在人民大會堂與習近平會面。法國總統馬克宏上個月訪華時，中方以紅毯和儀仗隊相迎。德國總理默茨預計將於2月訪問中國。

So far, Mr. Trump has lashed out directly only at Mr. Carney, who warned in a recent speech of a “rupture” in the world order because of the superpower competition between the United States and China.

迄今為止，川普直接抨擊的對象只有卡尼。卡尼在最近一次演講中警告稱，由於美中兩個超級大國的競爭，世界秩序正面臨「斷裂」。

“Every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great-power rivalry,” Mr. Carney said in Davos, Switzerland last week. He added: “The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

「每天的現實都在提醒我們，我們生活在一個大國競爭的時代，」卡尼上週在瑞士達佛斯表示。他還說：「中等強國必須採取共同行動，因為我們要麼坐在桌邊談判，要麼淪為被宰割的對象。」

If Mr. Starmer is looking to hedge against an increasingly mercurial Washington, Beijing will be more than willing to oblige — but on its terms.

如果斯塔默試��對沖越來越難以捉摸的華盛頓帶來的風險，北京將非常願意配合——但要按照它自己的條件。

“I don’t think China is trying to drive a wedge between the United States and its allies,” said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King’s College London. “Mr. Trump is managing that very nicely on his own and needs no help from Beijing. But China is an opportunist, and if there are some favorable winds coming its way because of how everyone else is feeling about America now, then they will take these.”

倫敦國王學院中國研究教授凱瑞·布朗表示：「我不認為中國在試圖離間美國及其盟友。川普正單槍匹馬地出色實現這一目標，根本不需要北京幫忙。但中國是機會主義者，如果因為當前各國對美國的看法而形成對其有利的風向，它就會順勢而為。」

China will likely expect Britain to welcome more Chinese investment and exports, Mr. Brown said. It will also want to depoliticize a bilateral relationship that has been dominated for years by security and human rights issues and by the status of Hong Kong, he added.

布朗說，中國可能會期待英國歡迎更多的中國投資和出口。他還表示，中方也希望推動雙邊關係去政治化，這種關係多年來一直受安全、人權問題和香港的局勢所主導。

One area of friction is the fate of Jimmy Lai, the former Hong Kong media tycoon who was convicted in December of national security crimes, and who has become a symbol of the erosion of freedoms in the former British colony. Mr. Lai, a British citizen, is expected to be sentenced in the coming weeks and faces up to life in prison. Mr. Starmer has called for Mr. Lai’s release. Beijing has dismissed such calls as “blatant interference” in its internal affairs.

中英關係中的一個摩擦點是前香港傳媒大亨黎智英的命運。黎智英去年12月被判危害國家安全罪名，已成為這個前英國殖民地自由受侵蝕的象徵。黎智英是英國公民，預計將在未來幾週內被判刑，最高可能面臨終身監禁。斯塔默已呼籲釋放黎智英。北京則將此類呼籲斥為對其內政的「公然干涉」。

Yvette Cooper, Britain’s foreign secretary, is not joining Mr. Starmer on his trip to China, suggesting that political issues are taking a back seat to the desire for economic investments. One British official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy, said such issues would be raised but would not be a focus of the trip.

斯塔默未安排外交大臣伊薇特·庫珀同行，這表明此行政治議題讓位於對經濟投資的訴求。一名因外交事務敏感而要求不具名的英國官員表示，這些問題會被提及，但不會成為此行的重點。

Opening Britain’s market to Chinese firms and depoliticizing its relationship with China would signal growing cracks in the U.S.-led alliance that had previously worked to restrain China but that has been shaken by Mr. Trump’s threats to seize Greenland and by his vows to punish those who oppose the move. (The president has since backed off both threats, but worries remain.)

向中國企業開放英國市場並推動對華關係「去政治化」將昭示由美國主導、此前旨在制衡中國的聯盟正在出現裂痕；這一聯盟已因川普威脅奪取格陵蘭以及誓言懲罰反對者而受到衝擊。（儘管總統的相關威脅已撤回，疑慮依然存在。）

In contrast, China has been casting itself as a stable and reliable power. Beijing argues that the United States is trying to return the world to the “law of the jungle” in which big powers bully weaker ones simply because they can — although China has few reservations about exerting its own leverage over smaller nations.

與此相對，中國正塑造自身作為穩定可靠大國的形象。北京批評美國試圖讓世界回歸大國恃強凌弱的「叢林法則」，但中國自身在向較小國家施加影響力時也鮮少顧忌。

Analysts in China, noting that Mr. Starmer has made economic growth a top priority, say that British companies want greater access to the Chinese market and that British consumers need affordable Chinese technologies like electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines.

中國的分析人士指出，斯塔默已將經濟增長列為首要任務，英國企業渴望拓展中國市場，英國消費者則需要價格可負擔的中國技術產品，如電動汽車、太陽能板和風力渦輪機。

“This visit signifies a restart of China-U.K. relations under a new situation,” said Wu Xinbo, the dean at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai. “Both sides hope, through this visit, to confirm the positioning and development path” so that bilateral relations can “reach a new high point.”

「我覺得這次訪問意味著新的形勢下中英關係的重啟，」上海復旦大學國際問題研究院院長吳心伯表示。「我覺得雙方都希望通過這次訪問，確認未來一段時間中英關係的這個定位和發展路徑拓寬和深化。」